Table 2. Population and extra mortality estimation in scenario MODERATE that assumes annual change −2.2% by Apr 2021.
| Timeline of wolf population changes | N | Individuals dead and disappeared | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Additional, due to reduced ESA protections* | Notes | ||
| 15 April 2020 in 256 packs, Day 0 | 1,034 | We assume wolves begin monitoring on this date | |
| Expected by 2 Nov 2020, Day 201-REDUCED PROTECTION PERIOD BEGINS ON 3 NOV 2020 | 1,011 | 91 | Nov 3-Feb 21 (Days 202–312, 111 day interval): Liberalized wolf-killing period cumulative incidence as a relative increment of +0.09 for all endpoints relative to baseline of strict ESA protection |
| Expected by 24 Feb 2021, Day 315-END OF WOLF-HUNT | 702 | 218 | Legal kills during wolf-hunt Feb 22–24 (3 days) |
| Expected by 15 Apr 2021, Day 365 | 695 | 7 | Feb 22-Apr 14 (Days 313–365, 51 day interval): Liberalized wolf-killing period cumulative incidence as a relative increment of +0.01 for all endpoints relative to baseline of strict ESA protection |
Note:
*
Source for all cumulative incidences is Santiago-Ávila, Chappell & Treves (2020).