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. 2021 Jul 7;11(7):e045886. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-045886

Table 1.

Baseline and scenario 1, 2 and 3 model outcomes

Delay (days) to targeted testing and contact tracing (T delay) Average waiting interval (days) from Is to T (1/IsT rate) Average waiting interval (days) from I to T (1/IT rate) Total infections Peak daily infections Peak daily test confirmation Total deaths The proportion of unconfirmed deaths to total deaths
Baseline No testing No IsT transformation No IT transformation 2933.6 1553.2 0 78.1 100%
Scenario 1 0 4 Yes 344.3 48.7 38.1 5.6 36%
6 1261.4 181.8 128.3 23 39%
8 1789 328.5 208.9 37.3 49%
10 2077.3 425 251.8 41.6 54%
12 2330.8 581 318.3 50 56%
Scenario 2 0 7 No IT transformation 2510.9 800.4 315 57.2 67%
13 1941.2 396.6 213 38.1 51%
11 1614.6 285.5 168.9 30.8 45%
Scenario 3 10 7 Yes 1857.6 360.1 233.4 37.2 46%
20 1922.6 456.2 294.4 37.8 49%
30 2272.3 764.1 455.5 45.2 55%
40 2649.8 1129.5 543 58.6 71%
50 2866.7 1231.6 400.5 67.1 82%

I, infected; Is, infected with symptom; T, tested positive and quarantined.