Table 1.
Delay (days) to targeted testing and contact tracing (T delay) | Average waiting interval (days) from Is to T (1/IsT rate) | Average waiting interval (days) from I to T (1/IT rate) | Total infections | Peak daily infections | Peak daily test confirmation | Total deaths | The proportion of unconfirmed deaths to total deaths | |
Baseline | No testing | No IsT transformation | No IT transformation | 2933.6 | 1553.2 | 0 | 78.1 | 100% |
Scenario 1 | 0 | 4 | Yes | 344.3 | 48.7 | 38.1 | 5.6 | 36% |
6 | 1261.4 | 181.8 | 128.3 | 23 | 39% | |||
8 | 1789 | 328.5 | 208.9 | 37.3 | 49% | |||
10 | 2077.3 | 425 | 251.8 | 41.6 | 54% | |||
12 | 2330.8 | 581 | 318.3 | 50 | 56% | |||
Scenario 2 | 0 | 7 | No IT transformation | 2510.9 | 800.4 | 315 | 57.2 | 67% |
13 | 1941.2 | 396.6 | 213 | 38.1 | 51% | |||
11 | 1614.6 | 285.5 | 168.9 | 30.8 | 45% | |||
Scenario 3 | 10 | 7 | Yes | 1857.6 | 360.1 | 233.4 | 37.2 | 46% |
20 | 1922.6 | 456.2 | 294.4 | 37.8 | 49% | |||
30 | 2272.3 | 764.1 | 455.5 | 45.2 | 55% | |||
40 | 2649.8 | 1129.5 | 543 | 58.6 | 71% | |||
50 | 2866.7 | 1231.6 | 400.5 | 67.1 | 82% |
I, infected; Is, infected with symptom; T, tested positive and quarantined.