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. 2021 Jul 8;11:14107. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-93578-x

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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The top panel shows the expected proportion of all transmission that is (a) due to the 20% most infectious cases for different levels of overdispersion and different distributions, with the offspring mean R fixed at 0.8; and (b) due to a given proportion of infectious cases, where cases are ranked by their transmission potential, for $σ = 1$ (dotted), $σ = 1.5$ (dashed), $σ = 3$ (full), and the different distributions, with R fixed at 0.8. The lower panel shows the realized proportion of all transmission that is (c) due to the 20% most infectious cases, shaded vertical bars show the range surrounding the proportions at $σ \in {1, 1.5, 3}$ (see Supplementary Methods); and (d) due to a given proportion of infectious cases.