Table 1.
Transitional probabilities
| Parameter | Value | Range | References |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short-term decision tree model | |||
| Dapagliflozin | |||
| HF | 0.0247 | 0.0230–0.0264 | Wiviott [8] |
| CKD | 0.0148 | 0.0135–0.0161 | |
| Standard treatment | |||
| HF | 0.0333 | 0.0314–0.0353 | Wiviott [8] |
| CKD | 0.0277 | 0.0260–0.0295 | |
| Long-term DM Markov model | |||
| Age-specific mortality rate of Thai population | Ministry of Public Health [12], burden of disease in Thai population [13] | ||
| 60–64 | 0.0142 | ||
| 65–69 | 0.0213 | ||
| 70–74 | 0.0325 | ||
| 75–79 | 0.0517 | ||
| 80–84 | 0.0822 | ||
| 85–89 and above | 0.1457 | ||
| HR of DM mortality | 1.79 | 1.73–1.85 | Tancredi [11] |
| HR of death from any cause (dapagliflozin vs placebo) | 0.93 | 0.82–1.04 | Wiviott [8] |
| Long-term HF Markov model (3-month cycle) | |||
| Dapagliflozin | |||
| HF hospitalization | 0.0015a | 0.0014–0.0017 | Wiviott [8] |
| Hospitalized cardiovascular death | 0.0003b | 0.0003–0.0003 | Wiviott [8], Krittayaphong [15] |
| Hospitalized non-cardiovascular death | 0.0015c | 0.0013–0.0016 | Wiviott [8] |
| Non-hospitalized cardiovascular death | 0.0014d | 0.0013–0.0016 | Wiviott [8] |
| Standard treatment | |||
| HF hospitalization | 0.0021e | 0.0019–0.0023 | Wiviott [8] |
| Hospitalized cardiovascular death | 0.0003f | 0.0003–0.0003 | Wiviott [8], Krittayaphong [15] |
| Hospitalized non-cardiovascular death | 0.0017g | 0.0015–0.0019 | Wiviott [8] |
| Non-hospitalized cardiovascular death | 0.0015h | 0.0013–0.0016 | Wiviott [8] |
| Dapagliflozin and standard treatment | |||
| 30-day readmission | 0.2882 | 0.2594–0.3171 | Janwanishstaporn [14] |
| Long-term CKD Markov model | |||
| Dapagliflozin | |||
| Normoalbuminuria to microalbuminuria | 0.0252i | 0.0227–0.0277 | Mosenzon [16] |
| Normoalbuminuria to macroalbuminuria | 0.0075j | 0.0067–0.0082 | |
| Microalbuminuria to normoalbuminuria | 0.1089k | 0.0980–0.1198 | |
| Microalbuminuria to macroalbuminuria | 0.1365l | 0.1228–0.1501 | |
| Macroalbuminuria to normoalbuminuria | 0.0144m | 0.0129–0.0158 | |
| Macroalbuminuria to microalbuminuria | 0.1201n | 0.1081–0.1322 | |
| Elevated SCr to ESRD | 0.0457o | 0.0411–0.0502 | |
| Standard treatment | |||
| Normoalbuminuria to microalbuminuria | 0.0268p | 0.0242–0.0295 | Mosenzon [16] |
| Normoalbuminuria to macroalbuminuria | 0.0138q | 0.0124–0.0152 | |
| Microalbuminuria to normoalbuminuria | 0.0771r | 0.0694–0.0848 | |
| Microalbuminuria to macroalbuminuria | 0.2045s | 0.1841–0.2250 | |
| Macroalbuminuria to normoalbuminuria | 0.0118t | 0.0106–0.0130 | |
| Macroalbuminuria to microalbuminuria | 0.0679u | 0.0611–0.0747 | |
| Elevated SCr to ESRD | 0.1400 | 0.1260–0.1540 | Srisubat [17] |
| Dapagliflozin and standard treatment | |||
| Normoalbuminuria to elevated SCr | 0.0010 | 0.0009–0.0011 | Adler [18] |
| Normoalbuminuria to death | 0.0260 | 0.0234–0.0286 | Sugrue [10] |
| Microalbuminuria to elevated SCr | 0.0030 | 0.0027–0.0033 | Adler [18] |
| Microalbuminuria to death | 0.0380 | 0.0342–0.0418 | Sugrue [10] |
| Macroalbuminuria to elevated SCr | 0.0230 | 0.0207–0.0253 | Adler [18] |
| Macroalbuminuria to death | 0.1010 | 0.0909–0.1111 | Sugrue [10] |
| Elevated SCr to death | 0.1920 | 0.1728–0.2112 | Adler [18] |
| Dialysis to transplantation | 0.0550 | 0.0495–0.0605 | Sugrue [10] |
| Dialysis to death | 0.1770 | 0.1593–0.1947 | |
| Transplantation to dialysis | 0.0820 | 0.0738–0.0902 | |
| Transplantation to death | 0.0530 | 0.0477–0.0583 | |
CKD chronic kidney disease, CV cardiovascular, DM diabetes, HF heart failure, HR hazard ratio, ESRD end stage renal disease, SCr serum creatinine
aHF hospitalization for dapagliflozin: 1-year rate = 6.2/1000 = 0.0062. 3-month probability = 1 − exp(− 0.0062/4) = 0.0015
bHospitalized CV death for dapagliflozin: 1-year rate of CV death from DECLARE = 7.0/1000 = 0.0070. 1-year rate of hospitalized CV death in Thailand = 17.6%. 3-month rate of hospitalized CV death = (17.6% × 0.007)/4 = 0.0003. 3-month probability of hospitalized CV death = 1 − exp(− 0.0003) = 0.0003
cHospitalized non-CV death for dapagliflozin: 1-year rate of non-CV death from DECLARE = 6.0/1000 = 0.0060. 3-month probability of hospitalized CV death = 1 − exp(− 0.0060/4) = 0.0015
dNon-hospitalized CV death for dapagliflozin: 3-month probability of CV death = 1 − exp(− 0.0070/4) = 0.0017. 3-month probability of non-hospitalized CV death = 0.0017 − 0.0003 = 0.0014
eHF hospitalization for standard treatment: 1-year rate = 8.5/1000 = 0.0085. 3-month probability = 1 − exp(− 0.0085/4) = 0.0021
fHospitalized CV death for standard treatment: 1-year rate of CV death from DECLARE = 7.1/1000 = 0.0071. 3-month rate of hospitalized CV death = (17.6% × 0.0071)/4 = 0.0003. 3-month probability of hospitalized CV death = 1 − exp(− 0.0003) = 0.0003
gHospitalized non-CV death for standard treatment: 1-year rate of non-CV death from DECLARE = 6.8/1000 = 0.0068. 3-month probability of hospitalized CV death = 1 − exp(− 0.0068/4) = 0.0017
hNon-hospitalized CV death for standard treatment: 3-month probability of CV death = 1 − exp(− 0.0071/4) = 0.0018. 3-month probability of non-hospitalized CV death = 0.0018–0.0003 = 0.0015
iNormoalbuminuria to microalbuminuria for dapagliflozin: probability = 591/5819 = 0.102 in 4.2 years. 1-year rate = − (ln(1 − 0.102))/4.2 = 0.025. 1-year probability = 1 − exp(− 0.025) = 0.0252
jNormoalbuminuria to macroalbuminuria for dapagliflozin: probability = 181/5819 = 0.031 in 4.2 years. 1-year rate = − (ln(1 − 0.031))/4.2 = 0.008. 1-year probability = 1 − exp(− 0.008) = 0.0075
kMicroalbuminuria to normoalbuminuria for dapagliflozin: probability = 774/2017 = 0.384 in 4.2 years. 1-year rate = − (ln(1 − 0.384))/4.2 = 0.115. 1-year probability = 1 − exp(− 0.115) = 0.1089
lMicroalbuminuria to macroalbuminuria for dapagliflozin: probability = 928/2017 = 0.460 in 4.2 years. 1-year rate = − (ln(1 − 0.460))/4.2 = 0.147. 1-year probability = 1 − exp(− 0.147) = 0.1365
mMacroalbuminuria to normoalbuminuria for dapagliflozin: probability = 35/594 = 0.059 in 4.2 years. 1-year rate = − (ln(1 − 0.059))/4.2 = 0.014. 1-year probability = 1 − exp(− 0.014) = 0.0144
nMacroalbuminuria to microalbuminuria for dapagliflozin: probability = 247/594 = 0.416 in 4.2 years. 1-year rate = − (ln(1 − 0.416))/4.2 = 0.128. 1-year probability = 1 − exp(− 0.128) = 0.1201
oElevated serum creatinine to ESRD for dapagliflozin: HR = 0.31. 1-year rate for standard treatment = − ln(1 − 0.140) = 0.151. 1-year rate for dapagliflozin = 0.151 × 0.31 = 0.047. 1-year probability = 1 − exp(− 0.047) = 0.0457
pNormoalbuminuria to microalbuminuria for standard treatment: probability = 629/5825 = 0.108 in 4.2 years. 1-year rate = − (ln(1 − 0.108))/4.2 = 0.027. 1-year probability = 1 − exp(− 0.027) = 0.0268
qNormoalbuminuria to macroalbuminuria for standard treatment: probability = 330/5825 = 0.057 in 4.2 years. 1-year rate = − (ln(1 − 0.057))/4.2 = 0.014. 1-year probability = 1 − exp(− 0.014) = 0.0138
rMicroalbuminuria to normoalbuminuria for standard treatment: probability = 576/2013 = 0.286 in 4.2 years. 1-year rate = − (ln(1 − 0.286))/4.2 = 0.080. 1-year probability = 1 − exp(− 0.080) = 0.0771
sMicroalbuminuria to macroalbuminuria for standard treatment: probability = 1243/2013 = 0.617 in 4.2 years. 1-year rate = − (ln(1 − 0.617))/4.2 = 0.229. 1-year probability = 1 − exp(− 0.229) = 0.2045
tMacroalbuminuria to normoalbuminuria for standard treatment: probability = 28/575 = 0.049 in 4.2 years. 1-year rate = − (ln(1 − 0.049))/4.2 = 0.012. 1-year probability = 1 − exp(− 0.012) = 0.0118
uMacroalbuminuria to microalbuminuria for standard treatment: probability = 147/575 = 0.256 in 4.2 years. 1-year rate = − (ln(1 − 0.256))/4.2 = 0.070. 1-year probability = 1 − exp(− 0.070) = 0.0679