Table 2.

Coefficients of the Ochsner models for calculating 5-year risk of CHD, HF and stroke

	CHD	HF	Stroke
Demographics
Age, years	0.02143	0.03372	0.01705
BMI, kg/m2	− 0.00959	0.01053	− 0.02817
Sex
Man	0.13083
Race
Black	0.22707	0.29277	0.03210
Asian	− 0.70858	− 0.91104	− 0.21774
Other	− 0.87601		− 0.06151
Clinical or biomarkers
Systolic blood pressure, mmHg	0.00213	0.00455	0.00990
HbA1C, %	0.05607	0.03734	0.09647
LDL cholesterol, mg/dl	− 0.00078	− 0.00374
HDL cholesterol, mg/dl	− 0.00847
Triglycerides, mg/dl			0.00067
Estimated GFR, ml/min/1.73 m2	0.00292	− 0.00108	0.00111
Medical history
Hypertension history	0.55760	0.59334	0.23297
CHD history	1.84915	0.37780	0.36549
Heart failure history	0.46568	1.88251	0.58397
Stroke history	− 0.14675	0.18941	0.65132
Medication prescription history
Hypolipidemic drugs	0.34079
Antidiabetic drugs	0.05846
Antihypertensive drugs	− 0.20982	− 0.17883

All risk factors listed in Table 1 were considered for inclusion; the ones listed in Table 2 were also selected for inclusion. The 5-year risk of an outcome can be computed as 1 – $S\left(0\right){ê}^{\left(\sum \beta \times x-\sum \beta \times \overline{x}\right)}$. Here β is the coefficient, and x is the covariate vector for an individual patient within the Ochsner cohort. $S\left(0\right)$ for the CHD, HF and stroke are 0.898, 0.928 and 0.975, respectively. For example, a 65-year-old white man with BMI 34.9 kg/m², systolic blood pressure 143 mmHg, HbA1c 8.4%, LDL cholesterol 110 mg/dl, HDL cholesterol 45 mg/dl, triglycerides 145 mg/dl and estimated GFR 52 ml/min/1.73 m² and with hypertension history, without CHD/HF/stroke history, and currently using antidiabetic and antihypertensive drugs, would have a 5-year CHD risk of 1 − 0.898^exp (0.02143 × 65 − 0.00959 × 34.9 + 0.13083 × 1 + 0.00213 × 143 + 0.05607 × 8.4 − 0.00078 × 110 − 0.00847 × 45 + 0.00292 × 52 + 0.55760 × 1 + 0.05846 × 1 − 0.20982 × 1 − 1.37) = 0.192 or 19.2% 5-year risk, where 1.37 is the mean $\sum \beta \times \overline{x})$

CHD coronary heart disease; HF heart failure; BMI body mass index; LDL low-density lipoprotein; HDL high-density lipoprotein; GFR glomerular filtration rate