Table 6.
Prediction of DFS at 12, 36, and 60 months based on clinical, biological, and genetic characteristics previously selected in the multivariate analysis for survival (CEA serum levels, lymph node involvement –N1 and N2- and abnormalities on 4q, 15q11.1, 15q14, and 17q21.31 chromosomal regions).
| Validation Sample ID | Real Time and Event | Prediction at | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DFS Censor | Time to DFS (Months) | 12 Months | 36 Months | 60 Months | ||||
| Probability of Absence of the Event | Success in Prediction? | Probability of Absence of the Event | Success in Prediction? | Probability of Absence of the Event | Success in Prediction? | |||
| 1 | 1 | 34 | 1 | YES | 0.8 | NO | 0.5 | YES |
| 2 | 1 | 18 | 1 | YES | 0.0 | YES | 0.0 | YES |
| 3 | 0 | 129 | 1 | YES | 0.9 | YES | 0.7 | YES |
| 4 | 1 | 109 | 1 | YES | 0.9 | YES | 0.9 | YES |
| 5 | 1 | 8 | 1 | NO | 0.0 | YES | 0.0 | YES |
| 6 | 0 | 54 | 1 | YES | 1.0 | YES | 1.0 | NC |
| 7 | 0 | 89 | 1 | YES | 1.0 | YES | 1.0 | YES |
| 8 | 0 | 86 | 1 | YES | 0.9 | YES | 0.8 | YES |
| 9 | 0 | 84 | 1 | YES | 1.0 | YES | 1.0 | YES |
| 10 | 0 | 110 | 1 | YES | 1.0 | YES | 0.9 | YES |
| Sucess rate | 90% | 90% | 100% | |||||
| Sensitivity | 0% | 67% | 100% | |||||
| Specificity | 100% | 100% | 100% | |||||
| Positive predictor value | NC | 100% | 100% | |||||
| Negative predictor value | 90% | 88% | 100% | |||||
NC: not calculable.