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Predictive performance of regression, gradient boosting, and random forests in predicting kidney transplant outcomes, as measured in the Brier score.
| Outcome | Regression | Gradient boosting | Random forests |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delayed graft function | 0.161 | 0.160 | 0.161 |
| Acute rejection, one-year | 0.089 | 0.090 | 0.091 |
| Death-censored graft failure | 0.179 | 0.187 | 0.185 |
| Death | 0.183 | 0.206 | 0.197 |
| All-cause graft failure | 0.193 | 0.201 | 0.208 |
Lower Brier score indicates superior calibration.
