Fig 7. Alternative scenarios: Lifting combinations of different policies.
This figure plots the trends in observed and counterfactual number of cumulative infections under several alternative scenarios from (A) Jan 1,2020 to Mar 15,2020, and from (B) Jan 1 to July 15. Data are presented as the median (solid line) and IQR (shading) of estimates (200 simulations). “No Policy” denotes the scenario in which no anti-contagion policies have been put in place. “Travel Restriction” denotes the case where only intercity travel bans were implemented after January 23. “TR+Lockdown” denotes the scenario in which both intercity travel restrictions and city lockdown were implemented. “TR+Lockdown+Testing&Treatment(TT)” denotes the baseline scenario in which all three policies have been implemented from January 23 to March 15.