Table 3.
Univariate and multivariate analysis of factors associated with in-hospital mortality in South Africa, March 5, 2020–March 27, 2021
| Case-fatality risk (95% CI) | Unadjusted OR (95% CI) | Adjusted OR (95% CI)* | Adjusted OR (95% CI)† | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age, years | ||||
| <40 | 7·2% (7·0–7·4) | 1 (ref) | 1 (ref) | 1 (ref) |
| 40–64 | 21·7% (21·5–22·0) | 3·75‡ (3·62–3·90) | 3·20‡ (3·08–3·32) | 3·17‡ (3·05–3·30) |
| ≥65 | 41·2% (40·8–41·6) | 9·38‡ (9·03–9·75) | 7·95‡ (7·63–8·28) | 7·89‡ (7·58–8·22) |
| Sex | ||||
| Female | 21·7% (21·5–21·9) | 1 (ref) | 1 (ref) | 1 (ref) |
| Male | 25·3% (25·0–25·5) | 1·32‡ (1·29–1·34) | 1·30‡ (1·27–1·33) | 1·30‡ (1·27–1·33) |
| Race | ||||
| White | 21·6% (20·8–22·3) | 1 (ref) | 1 (ref) | 1 (ref) |
| Black | 23·6% (23·4–23·8) | 0·79‡ (0·74–0·84) | 1·19‡ (1·11–1·27) | 1·18‡ (1·10–1·26) |
| Mixed | 22·6% (21·9–23·3) | 0·89‡ (0·83–0·96) | 1·17‡ (1·08–1·27) | 1·16‡ (1·07–1·26) |
| Indian | 23·9% (22·9–24·8) | 1·07 (0·99–1·14) | 1·31‡ (1·22–1·41) | 1·30‡ (1·21–1·40) |
| Presence of comorbidities | ||||
| No | 15·7% (15·4–15·9) | 1 (ref) | 1 (ref) | 1 (ref) |
| Yes | 28·9% (28·6–29·1) | 2·23‡ (2·17–2·30) | 1·67‡ (1·62–1·72) | 1·67‡ (1·62–1·72) |
| Health sector | ||||
| Private sector | 18·7% (18·5–19·0) | 1 (ref) | 1 (ref) | 1 (ref) |
| Public sector | 27·5% (27·2–27·7) | 1·99‡ (1·70–2·33) | 1·39‡ (1·21–1·60) | 1·39‡ (1·21–1·60) |
| Province | ||||
| Western Cape | 21·5% (21·1–21·9) | 1 (ref) | 1 (ref) | 1 (ref) |
| Eastern Cape | 32·6% (32·0–33·1) | 2·32‡ (1·79–3·01) | 2·14‡ (1·70–2·69) | 2·16‡ (1·72–2·71) |
| Free State | 22·3% (21·6–23·1) | 1·14 (0·83–1·56) | 1·29 (0·98–1·70) | 1·29 (0·98–1·69) |
| Gauteng | 20·0% (19·7–20·4) | 0·76‡ (0·60–0·98) | 1·08 (0·87–1·34) | 1·07 (0·86–1·33) |
| KwaZulu-Natal | 24·4% (24·0–24·8) | 1·45‡ (1·13–1·86) | 1·50‡ (1·21–1·87) | 1·48‡ (1·19–1·84) |
| Limpopo | 30·0% (29·0–31·0) | 1·98‡ (1·44–2·72) | 1·78‡ (1·34–2·35) | 1·74‡ (1·32–2·30) |
| Mpumalanga | 26·7% (25·7–27·6) | 2·27‡ (1·62–3·20) | 2·16‡ (1·61–2·92) | 2·14‡ (1·59–2·86) |
| North West | 14·6% (13·9–15·2) | 0·73 (0·49–1·09) | 0·93 (0·66–1·30) | 0·92 (0·65–1·30) |
| Northern Cape | 19·9% (18·6–21·3) | 1·32 (0·84–2·08) | 1·48 (0·99–2·21) | 1·48 (0·99–2·20) |
| Wave period | ||||
| Pre-wave 1 | 18·0% (17·2–18·7) | 0·79‡ (0·75–0·84) | 0·88‡ (0·83–0·93) | 0·99 (0·91–1·07) |
| Wave 1 | 20·8% (20·5–21·1) | 1 (ref) | 1 (ref) | 1 (ref) |
| Pre-wave 2 | 16·4% (16·0–16·9) | 0·70‡ (0·68–0·73) | 0·76‡ (0·73–0·79) | 0·85‡ (0·79–0·91) |
| Wave 2 | 27·8% (27·5–28·1) | 1·34‡ (1·31–1·37) | 1·37‡ (1·33–1·40) | 1·31‡ (1·28–1·35) |
| Post-wave 2 | 18·6% (17·9–19·2) | 0·80‡ (0·76–0·84) | 0·90‡ (0·85–0·95) | 1·02 (0·95–1·09) |
| Weekly national admission number | ||||
| Low (<3500) | 17·7% (17·3–18·0) | 1 (ref) | .. | 1 (ref) |
| Medium (3500–5749) | 21·0% (20·6–21·5) | 1·25‡ (1·20–1·29) | .. | 0·99 (0·93–1·05) |
| High (5750–7999) | 23·0% (22·5–23·5) | 1·44‡ (1·39–1·50) | .. | 1·08‡ (1·01–1·15) |
| Very high (>8000) | 26·9% (26·6–27·1) | 1·74‡ (1·69–1·79) | .. | 1·24‡ (1·17–1·32) |
OR=odds ratio.
*
Adjusted OR including wave periods.
†
Adjusted for weekly admissions.
‡
Statistically significant estimates.