Table 7.
Scenario analyses
| Parameter | Base-case settings | Scenario-analysis settings | Cost savings per member per month averaged across a 5-year time horizon (% of changes from base case) | Additional patients treatable with bevacizumab-bvzr averaged across a 5-year time horizon (% of changes from base case) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medicare | Commercial | Medicare | Commercial | |||
| Base-case analysis | – | – | $0.007 | $0.012 | 7 | 8 |
| Market scenarios for comparison | Market with bevacizumab-bvzr vs. market without bevacizumab-bvzr | Market with bevacizumab biosimilars vs. market without bevacizumab biosimilar a | $0.05 (+ 614%) | $0.093 (+ 675%) | 50 (+ 614%) | 62 (+ 675%) |
| Average sales price of bevacizumab-bvzr | $631.8 | 10% decrease ($568.6) | $0.011 (+ 57%) | $0.018 (+ 50%) | 13 (+ 86%) | 14 (+ 75%) |
| 20% decrease ($505.4) | $0.016 (+ 129%) | $0.025 (+ 108%) | 20 (+ 186%) | 21 (+ 163%) | ||
| Uptake of bevacizumab-bvzr over years 1–5 | 1.7%, 3.6%, 6.7%, 9.4%, and 11.9% | 100% increase (3.5%, 7.2%, 13.4%, 18.8% and 23.9%)b | $0.013 (+ 86%) | $0.023 (+ 92%) | 13 (+ 86%) | 15 (+ 88%) |
| 50% decrease (0.9%, 1.8%, 3.4%, 4.7% and 6.0%)b | $0.003 (− 57%) | $0.006 (− 50%) | 3 (− 57%) | 4 (− 50%) | ||
| Reimbursement markup for a commercial payer | 10% relative to ASPs | 20% increase in ASP markup (i.e., 12% markup) | Not applicable | $0.012 (0%) | Not applicable | 8 (0%) |
| 20% decrease in ASP markup (i.e., 8% markup) | Not applicable | $0.011 (– 8%) | Not applicable | 8 (0%) | ||
| 75% relative to WACs | 20% increase in WAC markup (i.e., 90% markup) | Not applicable | $0.012 (0%) | Not applicable | 8 (0%) | |
| 20% decrease in WAC markup (i.e., 60% markup) | Not applicable | $0.011 (– 8%) | Not applicable | 8 (0%) | ||
| Time horizon | 5 years | 1 year | $0.001 (− 86%) | $0.003 (− 75%) | 1 (− 86%) | 2 (− 75%) |
| 3 years | $0.004 (− 43%) | $0.007 (− 42%) | 4 (− 43%) | 5 (− 38%) | ||
aMarket share in the market with bevacizumab biosimilars was the same as that in the market with bevacizumab-bvzr in the base case. In the market without bevacizumab biosimilar, bevacizumab reference product accounted for 100% of the market share
bIt was assumed that the market shift to bevacizumab-bvzr was proportionally taken from the bevacizumab reference product and bevacizumab-awwb relative to the market share of bevacizumab reference product and bevacizumab-awwb