Table 2.
Changes in the US output, exports and imports in 2050 relative to “BAU” (%)
| Crop |
Livestock |
Food |
Fors&Lum |
Energy intensive Ind. |
Other Industries |
|||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Output | Export | Import | Output | Export | Import | Output | Export | Import | Output | Export | Import | Output | Export | Import | Output | Export | Import | |
| Less trade | 0 | −2 | −6 | −2 | −7 | −8 | −1 | −12 | −8 | 1 | 0 | −3 | −1 | −8 | −2 | 1 | 0 | −5 |
| Less clim. imp. Crops | 0 | −4 | −1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | −2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Less clim. imp crops&livest. | 2 | −3 | −10 | −7 | −27 | −13 | −1 | −9 | −2 | 0 | −3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Less yield constraint | 13 | 5 | −24 | −5 | −34 | −26 | −1 | −11 | −4 | 1 | −11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Less meat demand | 2 | 2 | −5 | −12 | −29 | −19 | −2 | −9 | −4 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Less pop. growth | −4 | −8 | −29 | −23 | −44 | −37 | −23 | −26 | −22 | −28 | −30 | −23 | −27 | −23 | −21 | −29 | −26 | −21 |
| Less econ. growth | −6 | −23 | −32 | −25 | −64 | −56 | −14 | −27 | −21 | −13 | −34 | −15 | −14 | −16 | −19 | −14 | −15 | −21 |
| Less all | −13 | −41 | −52 | −46 | −92 | −85 | −34 | −57 | −43 | −37 | −57 | −34 | −38 | −39 | −36 | −38 | −35 | −40 |
| Sum of independent effects | 7 | −30 | −107 | −74 | −204 | −158 | −42 | −96 | −61 | −40 | −79 | −38 | −41 | −43 | −38 | −42 | −38 | −42 |
| More trade | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 14 | 12 | −1 | −2 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 3 | −2 | −2 | 6 |
| More clim. imp. Crops | 3 | 13 | 8 | −2 | −1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | −1 | 0 | −1 | −1 | 0 | 0 | −1 |
| More clim. imp crops&livest. | 1 | 8 | 16 | 15 | 63 | 27 | 3 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | −1 | −1 | −4 | −3 | −1 | −2 | −3 |
| More yield constraint | −10 | −3 | 32 | 3 | 39 | 23 | 1 | 14 | 6 | −3 | 6 | −3 | 0 | −2 | −2 | 0 | −1 | −3 |
| More meat demand | −1 | −1 | 5 | 9 | 28 | 20 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 0 | −1 | −1 | 0 | −1 | −1 |
| More pop. growth | 4 | 7 | 44 | 26 | 65 | 48 | 29 | 35 | 28 | 37 | 47 | 28 | 36 | 30 | 25 | 37 | 32 | 23 |
| More econ. growth | 7 | 36 | 78 | 54 | 222 | 143 | 21 | 58 | 38 | 15 | 61 | 22 | 16 | 18 | 27 | 16 | 16 | 30 |
| More all | 1 | 81 | 215 | 55 | 520 | 341 | 69 | 279 | 131 | 47 | 97 | 85 | 57 | 59 | 49 | 57 | 43 | 46 |
| Sum of independent effects | 0 | 50 | 183 | 109 | 423 | 270 | 57 | 151 | 93 | 48 | 115 | 51 | 55 | 62 | 49 | 51 | 42 | 52 |
| Energy |
Refined Oil |
Electricity |
Services |
Construction |
Transportation |
|||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Output | Export | Import | Output | Export | Import | Output | Export | Import | Output | Export | Import | Output | Export | Import | Output | Export | Import | |
| Less trade | 0 | 1 | −1 | −1 | −2 | −2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Less clim. imp. Crops | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Less clim. imp crops&livest. | 1 | 2 | 3 | −1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | −1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| Less yield constraint | 1 | 3 | 4 | −1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | −1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| Less meat demand | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Less pop. growth | −16 | −31 | −26 | −15 | −24 | −25 | −11 | −38 | −38 | −24 | −19 | −16 | −31 | −30 | −10 | −25 | −22 | −21 |
| Less econ. growth | −13 | −26 | −22 | −6 | −18 | −18 | −7 | −24 | −20 | −14 | −9 | −21 | −13 | −11 | −8 | −13 | −10 | −20 |
| Less all | −25 | −46 | −42 | −16 | −39 | −37 | −17 | −50 | −48 | −35 | −24 | −33 | −40 | −34 | −15 | −34 | −27 | −36 |
| Sum of independent effects | −27 | −50 | −40 | −23 | −40 | −40 | −18 | −58 | −57 | −38 | −22 | −41 | −44 | −31 | −18 | −37 | −22 | −38 |
| More trade | 0 | −2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | −4 | 1 | −1 | −5 | −1 | 0 | −4 | 2 |
| More clim. imp. Crops | 0 | −1 | −1 | 0 | −1 | −1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 |
| More clim. imp crops&livest. | −1 | −4 | −4 | 1 | −3 | −3 | 0 | −1 | −1 | 0 | −3 | −1 | 0 | −5 | −1 | −1 | −6 | 0 |
| More yield constraint | −1 | −4 | −5 | 1 | −3 | −3 | 0 | −2 | −1 | 0 | −2 | 0 | 0 | −4 | −1 | 0 | −4 | 1 |
| More meat demand | 0 | −1 | −2 | 0 | −1 | −1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | −1 | 0 | −2 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 1 |
| More pop. growth | 20 | 40 | 35 | 17 | 35 | 33 | 27 | 36 | 36 | 32 | 23 | 20 | 43 | 38 | 11 | 32 | 25 | 31 |
| More econ. growth | 16 | 36 | 32 | 6 | 28 | 26 | 14 | 20 | 18 | 16 | 3 | 38 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 0 | 44 |
| More all | 31 | 54 | 43 | 31 | 52 | 46 | 47 | 51 | 53 | 53 | 14 | 60 | 64 | 12 | 25 | 43 | −7 | 95 |
| Sum of independent effects | 33 | 65 | 57 | 26 | 57 | 52 | 41 | 53 | 54 | 48 | 15 | 57 | 57 | 27 | 19 | 43 | 9 | 79 |