Table 1.
Parameters list for model fitting.
Parameter | Meaning | Setting | Notes |
---|---|---|---|
Si | Population size in the i-th age group | 45 million (Bureau of Statistics, 2014) | Fixed |
R0 | Basic reproduction number | Uniform (3, 4) (Anderson et al., 2020; Sanche et al., 2020; Viceconte and Petrosillo, 2020; Mizumoto et al., 2020) | R0 = 3.5 was used in the heatmap. |
Average time from exposure to preclinical symptomatic (pre-symptomatic) | Gamma (θ = 0.1, k = 20) days (Lauer et al., 2020; Backer et al., 2020) | = 2 days was used in the heatmap | |
Average time from preclinical symptomatic to clinical symptomatic | Gamma (θ = 0.2, k = 20) days (Kong et al., 2020; Wei et al., 2020) | = 4 days was used in the heatmap | |
Average time from clinical symptomatic to recover for those quarantined | 20 days (Deng et al., 2020) | Fixed (No influence on model fitting) | |
Social contact from j-th to i-th age groups before the outbreak | From surveys (Zhang et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2019) | ||
Social contact from j-th to i-th age groups during the outbreak | From surveys (Zhang et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2019) | ||
p | The proportion of exposure get quarantined (contact tracing) | Range: (0, 0.8) | Fitted by the data |
Case isolation speed (days), from clinical symptomatic to remove for those not in quarantined | Range: (1, 15) days | Fitted by the data | |
a | Parameter of the sigmoid function | Uniform (0.5, 1.5) | a = 1 was used in the heatmap |
b | Parameter of the sigmoid function | Uniform (17, 20) | b = 19 was used in the heatmap |
scnt1 | Scale parameter of social contact before the outbreak | Range: (0.9, 1.3) | Fitted by the data; final social contact = |
scnt2 | Scale parameter of social contact during the outbreak | Range: (0.9, 1.3) | Fitted by the data; final social contact = |