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. 2021 Jul 12;11:14342. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-93121-y

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Predictive and convergent validity of the Pupil Dilation Index for self-regulation success. (a) Bayesian linear regression of self-regulation success using the model given in Eq. (3a). Pupil Dilation Index denotes the coefficient estimating the influence of regulation-related arousal components. Affective Distance denotes the coefficient estimating the influence of the mean absolute difference of the view rating from neutral (middle of the rating scale) that can be interpreted as a proxy for regulation difficulty. Regulation success increased both with greater Pupil Dilation Index and Affective Distance. The plot shows the mean beta estimates (grey dots) as well as the range of coefficients within the 90% credible interval) that is shown by the light grey horizontal bars (thick horizontal bars = 50% credible interval). (b) Predicting regulation success out-of-sample. The results from the model in Eq. (3a) were cross-validated with a Leave-2-Participants-Out approach. Based on data from N-2 participants, we predicted which of the two left-out individuals regulated more successfully. The model predicted with 61% accuracy significantly above chance (p < 0.001). (c) Convergent validity of the Pupil Dilation Index. The Pupil Dilation Index (PDI) that we measured during emotion regulation also shows convergent validity across different types of self-control tasks: a higher PDI value was associated with higher health challenge success scores within-individual in the dietary health challenge task that individuals completed in the same experimental session (r = 0.51, posterior probability rho > 0 = 0.9995), explaining 26% of the variance (R-squared = 0.26) in dietary health challenge success. The grey shaded area signifies the 95% confidence interval.