Table 2.
Future projections of diabetes and DR disease burden
| Year | Projected population | T1DM* | T2DM* | Total DM* | DR† | STR† |
| 2019 | 66 800 000 | 280 560 | 3 520 360 | 3 800 920 | 1 311 317 | 482 717 |
| 2020 | 67 200 000 | 288 960 | 3 568 320 | 3 857 280 | 1 342 333 | 497 589 |
| 2021 | 67 500 000 | 297 000 | 3 604 500 | 3 901 500 | 1 369 427 | 511 097 |
| 2022 | 67 800 000 | 305 100 | 3 647 640 | 3 952 740 | 1 399 270 | 525 714 |
| 2023 | 68 100 000 | 306 450 | 3 684 210 | 3 990 660 | 1 420 675 | 538 739 |
| 2024 | 68 400 000 | 314 640 | 3 720 960 | 4 035 600 | 1 448 780 | 552 877 |
| 2025 | 68 700 000 | 322 890 | 3 764 760 | 4 087 650 | 1 479 729 | 568 183 |
| 2026 | 68 900 000 | 330 720 | 3 796 390 | 4 127 110 | 1 506 395 | 581 923 |
| 2027 | 69 200 000 | 339 080 | 3 833 680 | 4 172 760 | 1 535 576 | 596 705 |
| 2028 | 69 400 000 | 347 000 | 3 872 520 | 4 219 520 | 1 561 222 | 611 830 |
| 2029 | 69 600 000 | 354 960 | 3 904 560 | 4 259 520 | 1 588 801 | 626 149 |
| 2030 | 69 800 000 | 362 960 | 3 936 720 | 4 299 680 | 1 616 680 | 640 652 |
*The DR and STR forecast is actual IMRD based figures projected for the UK population.34 Formula used is Affected Population=Projected Prevalence × Projected Population.
†In calculating projections for diabetic retinopathy, we have applied the retinopathy rates of those aged 12 and above for the whole diabetes population rather than for those above 12 years old (age at which retinopathy screening commences and was one of our inclusion criteria). This approximately gives the projected total population, as breakdown for over 12 years is not available but the number of patients with DM below 12 years is negligibly small.
DR, diabetic retinopathy; IMRD, IQVIA Medical Research Data; STR, sight threatening retinopathy.