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. 2021 Jul 6:M21-1213. doi: 10.7326/M21-1213

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This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted re-use for research, analyses, and text and data mining through PubMed Central. Acknowledgement of the original source shall include a notice similar to the following: "© 2020 American College of Physicians. Some rights reserved. This work permits non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited." These permissions are granted for the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic or until permissions are revoked in writing. Upon expiration of these permissions, PMC is granted a perpetual license to make this article available via PMC and Europe PMC, consistent with existing copyright protections.

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Figure 3. Adjusted odds of mortality for categorical parameterizations of the surge index, 558 U.S. hospitals, March to August 2020. Risk-adjusted odds ratios of mortality were calculated using surge index deciles above the median (A) and shrinking percentile categories (B) for the primary study cohort (admissions in March to August 2020). In panel B, the shrinkage distribution is applied to evince the prognostic effect in categories of extremely high surge index. Panels C and D illustrate effect modification of the relationship between surge index and mortality by period of admission. The slopes in the relationship between log surge index and log odds of mortality (see Supplement Figure 5) for June through August versus March through May intersect (slope difference, 0.10 [95% CI, 0.033 to 0.16]), indicating a significant quantitative interaction by period of admission. — Risk-adjusted odds ratios of mortality were calculated using surge index deciles above the median (A) and shrinking percentile categories (B) for the primary study cohort (admissions in March to August 2020). In panel B, the shrinkage distribution is applied to evince the prognostic effect in categories of extremely high surge index. Panels C and D illustrate effect modification of the relationship between surge index and mortality by period of admission. The slopes in the relationship between log surge index and log odds of mortality (see Supplement Figure 5) for June through August versus March through May intersect (slope difference, 0.10 [95% CI, 0.033 to 0.16]), indicating a significant quantitative interaction by period of admission.