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. 2021 Jul 14;18(180):20210009. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2021.0009

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© 2021 The Authors.

Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.

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Figure 12. — A reduction of $R_{eff}$ with target dates for different scenarios described above. We see that opening too early will cause $R_{eff}$ to increase above 1 which will increase the risk of localized outbreaks. If relaxation is delayed until May 2021 and phased-in, reopening can occur with very little risk.