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. 2021 Jul 13;11:14413. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-93924-z

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Prediction of changes in resting heart rate by changes in sleep patterns. Plots showing final fitted models (green curves) across 20 countries predicting changes in resting heart rate (RHR) (2020–2019) using changes in midsleep time, changes in midsleep variability, and sleep duration in 2020 as time-varying predictors in the same model. Observed mean differences between 2020 and 2019 (blue dots) and predictions without sleep variability in the model (blue dashed line) are also shown for comparison. Sleep variability was found to be the strongest predictor of resting heart rate and is shown here in orange solid line for visualization purposes.