Table 5.
Performance comparison of candidate ARIMA models for the test dataset.
| Region | Candidate models | AIC | RMSE | MAPE | Selected model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | ARIMA (2,2,2) | 3603 | 3330748 | 2.38 | ARIMA (5,2,2) |
| ARIMA (1,2,0) | 3626 | 3151914 | 2.26 | ||
| ARIMA (0,2,1) | 3617 | 3651831 | 2.62 | ||
| ARIMA (1,2,2) | 3602 | 3272585 | 2.32 | ||
| ARIMA (0,2,2) | 3603 | 3349863 | 2.38 | ||
| ARIMA (1,2,1) | 3601 | 3299527 | 2.35 | ||
| ARIMA (2,2,1) | 3600 | 3193971 | 2.25 | ||
| ARIMA (2,2,0) | 3628 | 3060394 | 2.20 | ||
| ARIMA (3,2,1) | 3560 | 2678414 | 1.83 | ||
| ARIMA (3,2,0) | 3594 | 3373309 | 2.39 | ||
| ARIMA (4,2,1) | 3558 | 2536176 | 1.72 | ||
| ARIMA (4,2,0) | 3575 | 3265123 | 2.28 | ||
| ARIMA (5,2,1) | 3554 | 2234625 | 1.48 | ||
| ARIMA (5,2,0) | 3559 | 2398972 | 1.60 | ||
| ARIMA (5,2,2) | 3552 | 1964099 | 1.27 | ||
| ARIMA (4,2,1) | 3553 | 2536176 | 1.72 | ||
| ARIMA (5,2,3) | 3554 | 1983322 | 1.29 | ||
| ARIMA (4,2,3) | 3555 | 1996855 | 1.30 | ||
| Asia | ARIMA (2,2,2) | 3966 | 4508909 | 4.81 | ARIMA (1,2,3) |
| ARIMA (0,2,0) | 4010 | 13619654 | 14.08 | ||
| ARIMA (1,2,0) | 3992 | 12518718 | 12.97 | ||
| ARIMA (0,2,1) | 3964 | 4480895 | 4.77 | ||
| ARIMA (1,2,1) | 3963 | 4540281 | 4.84 | ||
| ARIMA (2,2,1) | 3964 | 4513366 | 4.81 | ||
| ARIMA (1,2,2) | 3964 | 4475124 | 4.77 | ||
| ARIMA (0,2,2) | 3963 | 4521102 | 4.82 | ||
| ARIMA (0,2,3) | 3965 | 4516004 | 4.81 | ||
| ARIMA (1,2,3) | 3966 | 4503660 | 4.80 | ||
| Europe | ARIMA (2,2,2) | 4041 | 6372484 | 5.78 | ARIMA (5,2,0) |
| ARIMA (0,2,0) | 4087 | 7442914 | 6.77 | ||
| ARIMA (1,2,0) | 4085 | 8084573 | 7.37 | ||
| ARIMA (0,2,1) | 4080 | 6017086 | 5.45 | ||
| ARIMA (1,2,2) | 4062 | 6364820 | 5.77 | ||
| ARIMA (2,2,1) | 4060 | 6221668 | 5.64 | ||
| ARIMA (3,2,2) | 4036 | 4816791 | 4.29 | ||
| ARIMA (3,2,1) | 4052 | 5759615 | 5.19 | ||
| ARIMA (4,2,1) | 4034 | 5219494 | 4.66 | ||
| ARIMA (4,2,0) | 4055 | 5219494 | 4.66 | ||
| ARIMA (5,2,1) | 4030 | 5075843 | 4.52 | ||
| ARIMA (5,2,0) | 3468 | 4783587 | 4.24 | ||
| Africa | ARIMA (2,2,2) | 2161 | 824239 | 11.33 | ARIMA (2,2,1) |
| ARIMA (0,2,0) | 2188 | 950504 | 13.17 | ||
| ARIMA (1,2,0) | 2170 | 932713 | 12.91 | ||
| ARIMA (0,2,1) | 2155 | 823725 | 11.32 | ||
| ARIMA (1,2,1) | 2157 | 823566 | 11.32 | ||
| ARIMA (2,2,1) | 2159 | 823488 | 11.32 | ||
| ARIMA (1,2,2) | 2159 | 823568 | 11.32 | ||
| ARIMA (0,2,2) | 2457 | 823448 | 11.32 | ||
| South America | ARIMA (2,2,2) | 3465 | 322142 | 0.91 | ARIMA (1,2,1) |
| ARIMA (0,2,0) | 3529 | 4085583 | 11.56 | ||
| ARIMA (1,2,0) | 3528 | 3878743 | 10.97 | ||
| ARIMA (0,2,1) | 3493 | 471956 | 1.22 | ||
| ARIMA (1,2,2) | 3479 | 400317 | 1.07 | ||
| ARIMA (2,2,1) | 3470 | 771082 | 2.06 | ||
| ARIMA (2,2,2) | 3467 | 322142 | 0.91 | ||
| ARIMA (1,2,1) | 3488 | 327430 | 0.90 | ||
| ARIMA (1,2,3) | 3472 | 533316 | 1.51 | ||
| ARIMA (3,2,1) | 3470 | 851619 | 2.36 | ||
| ARIMA (3,2,3) | 3468 | 364552 | 1.02 | ||
| World | ARIMA (0,2,0) | 4352 | 26246314 | 6.57 | ARIMA (5,2,1) |
| ARIMA (1,2,0) | 4344 | 22964805 | 5.76 | ||
| ARIMA (0,2,1) | 4332 | 9017266 | 2.32 | ||
| ARIMA (1,2,1) | 4321 | 9178706 | 2.37 | ||
| ARIMA (2,2,1) | 4322 | 9163123 | 2.36 | ||
| ARIMA (1,2,2) | 4323 | 9172276 | 2.37 | ||
| ARIMA (0,2,2) | 4322 | 8869982 | 2.29 | ||
| ARIMA (2,2,0) | 4345 | 20828062 | 5.23 | ||
| ARIMA (4,2,0) | 3070 | 9321756 | 2.37 | ||
| ARIMA (4,2,1) | 3696 | 5685208 | 1.46 | ||
| ARIMA (5,2,0) | 3698 | 6805696 | 1.74 | ||
| ARIMA (5,2,1) | 3693 | 5412285 | 1.39 | ||
| ARIMA (5,2,2) | 3690 | 5724002 | 1.46 | ||