Figure 2.

Model reproduced daily confirmed case count better with the inclusion of Minimum Health Standards (MHS). We calibrated the national model to daily confirmed cases (black dots; same in both plots), which included MHS (left) and ran a counterfactual scenario that did not include MHS (right). The MHS effect value (i.e., reduced transmission risk per contact) is squared in the model to account for the reduction in the probability of an infected person passing on the infection and the probability of a contact being infected, prior to adjustment of each cell of the mixing matrix. We provide results for the regional models with and without MHS in Figs. S6-8.