Table 2.

Key parameter prior and posterior distributions from the Philippines model. All parameters with the term “adjuster” allow for modification to the best estimates from the literature. Adjuster values are multiplicative factors applied to the odds ratio. An adjuster value of one indicates no adjustment is needed, a value below one indicates the parameter is lower in the Philippines, and a value above one indicates the parameter is higher in the Philippines. MHS is the Minimum Health Standards and refers to the microdistancing function that proportionally reduces the probability of transmission given contact.

Parameter	Prior distribution	Prior distribution parameters	Posterior credible interval centiles
			2.5th	50th	97.5th
Incubation period (days)	Truncated normal	Mean 5.5, standard deviation 0.97, truncated range [1, infinity)	3.70	5.42	7.36
Duration actively infectious (days)	Truncated normal	Mean 6.5, standard deviation 0.77, truncated range [4, infinity)	5.19	6.49	7.95
Infection risk per contact	Uniform	Range 0.02-0.04	0.029	0.033	0.038
Symptomatic proportion adjuster	Uniform	Range 0.5-2.0	0.589	1.23	1.91
Infection fatality adjuster	Uniform	Range 0.5-2.0	0529	1.07	1.91
hospitalisation proportion adjuster	Uniform	Range 0.5-2.0	0.588	1.34	1.96
Maximum effect of MHS (proportion)	Uniform	Range 0.1-0.6	0.13	0.20	0.27
Case Detection Rate at testing rate of 1 test per 10,000 per day (proportion)	Uniform	Range 2-20	2.88%	9.81%	19.3%
Infectious seed (persons)	Uniform	Range 10-100	17.80	71.50	97.90