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. 2021 Jul 14;12:4313. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-24566-y

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 3 — The model was simultaneously fitted to the age distributions in each observation year from 2001 to 2019, accounting for uncertainty in the birth year of each reported case given the patient’s age. For plotting, we pooled observed and predicted numbers of cases across observation years for each birth year, assuming the earliest possible birth year for each age (e.g., an age of 10 years in 2000 was assumed to correspond to the birth year 1989). Red lines and dots show the fraction of cases in each birth cohort as predicted by the model. Vertical bars are 95% bootstrap confidence intervals based on n = 1000 multinomial draws from the predicted distributions indicated by the dots. In the bottom row, predicted and observed fractions of cases were normalized by dividing by the fraction of the population born in that birth year (i.e., the null expectation if all birth years were infected at the same rate).