Table 2.
Parameter estimates for the model fitted to the New Zealand case data.
| Parameter | MLE (95% CI) | Definition |
|---|---|---|
| β1 | 0.09 (0.07–0.10) | Baseline annual infection probability for preschoolers (0–5 years old) |
| β2 | 0.16 (0.13–0.20) | Baseline annual infection probability for people 6–17 years old |
| β3 | 0.12 (0.09–0.15) | Baseline annual infection probability for people 18+ years old |
| χVV | 0.89 (0.85–0.96) | Protection against B/Vic from any prior B/Vic infection |
| χYY | 0.28 (0.10–0.43) | Protection against B/Yam from any prior B/Yam infection |
| γYV | 0.00 (0.00–1.00) | Protection from B/Vic infection against B/Yam (as a fraction of χYY)a |
| γVY | 0.00 (0.00–0.07) | Protection from B/Yam infection against B/Vic (as a fraction of χVV)a |
| RV | 0.97 (0.00–1.00) | Additional B/Vic protection if 1st infection was with B/Vic |
| RY | 0.96 (0.87–1.00) | Additional B/Yam protection if 1st infection was with B/Yam |
| γVA | 1.00 (0.93–1.00) | Protection against B/Vic from pre-1988 infections (as a fraction of χVV)a |
| γYA | 1.00 (0.00–1.00) | Protection against B/Yam from pre-1988 infections (as a fraction of χYY)a |
| ρ | 1.97 (1.73–2.26) | Reporting factor for children under 2 years old. |
aCross-lineage protection does not apply when within-lineage protection is present.