Table 1.

Illustrating the different scenarios and corresponding parameter values tested in scenario analysis.

Scenario description	Scenario	Beta (fixed)	Epsilon (prior)
Human movement unlikely, most movement under 10 km	1	Gaussian = 0.005	Mean = 0.1
Missing cases more likely (but very uncertain)		Exponential = 0.1	SD = 1
Human movement unlikely, most movement under 10 km	2	Gaussian = 0.005	Mean = 0.1
Missing cases more likely (confident)		Exponential = 0.1	SD = 0.001
Human movement unlikely, most movement under 10 km	3	Gaussian = 0.005	Mean = 0.001
Missing cases less likely (but very uncertain)		Exponential = 0.1	SD = 1
Human movement unlikely, most movement under 10 km	4	Gaussian = 0.005	Mean = 0.001
Missing cases less likely (confident)		Exponential = 0.1	SD = 0.001
Moderate human movement, most movement under 50 km	5	Gaussian = 0.001	Mean = 0.1
Missing cases more likely (but very uncertain)		Exponential = 0.02	SD = 1
Moderate human movement, most movement under 50 km	6	Gaussian = 0.001	Mean = 0.1
Missing cases more likely (confident)		Exponential = 0.02	SD = 0.001
Moderate human movement, most movement under 50 km	7	Gaussian = 0.001	Mean = 0.001
Missing cases less likely (but very uncertain)		Exponential = 0.02	SD = 1
Moderate human movement, most movement under 50 km	8	Gaussian = 0.001	Mean = 0.001
Missing cases less likely (confident)		Exponential = 0.02	SD = 0.001
Longer range human movement likely	9	Gaussian = 0.0001	Mean = 0.1
Missing cases more likely (but very uncertain)		Exponential = 0.01	SD = 1
Longer range human movement likely	10	Gaussian = 0.0001	Mean = 0.1
Missing cases more likely (confident)		Exponential = 0.01	SD = 0.001
Longer range human movement likely	11	Gaussian = 0.0001	Mean = 0.001
Missing cases less likely (but very uncertain)		Exponential = 0.01	SD = 1
Longer range human movement likely	12	Gaussian = 0.0001	Mean = 0.001
Missing cases less likely (certain)		Exponential = 0.01	SD = 0.001