Table 1.
Theoretical Predictions by Assumption.
| Assumption/true model | Predictions |
|---|---|
| Educationa | |
| Increase in education | δ3 > 0 |
| Initial gender gap | δ2 < 0 |
| Narrowing gender gap | δ4 > 0 |
| Cognition | |
| Education-only | Signs of coefficients in (6) are the same as in (5); φ2 – φ4 are zero |
| Education + environmental factors | φ3and φ11 may be nonzero, but φ4 and φ12 are likely (close to) zero |
| Ability-only (does not vary by gender and cohort) | π2–π4 are zero |
| Ability-only (does not vary by cohort) | π3and π4 are zero |
| Ability-only (does not vary by gender) | π2and π4 are zero |
| Education + ability + narrowing gender gap in education | φ4and φ12 are negative |
| Education + ability | Implied education coefficients are positive and larger than the causal effects of education |
a
These are not essential for the analysis: predictions for cognition regressions would change accordingly.