Contribution	Conflicts of Interest
David Hodgson	Data analysis, Statistical modelling, Writing — Original Draft, Writing — Review & Editing	None
Hayley Colton	Data curation, Formal Analysis, Validation, Writing - Original Draft, Writing - Review & Editing	None
Hailey Hornsby	Methodology, Investigation, data curation, formal analysis, validation, visualisation, writing - original draft	None
Rebecca Brown	Investigation	None
Joanne Mckenzie	Investigation	None
Kirsty Bradley	Investigation	None
Cameron James	Investigation	None
Benjamin B. Lindsey	Software, Methodology	None
Sarah Birch	Project administration	None
Louise Marsh	Project administration	None
Steven Wood	Software, Data curation	None
Martin Bayley	Software, Data curation	None
Gary Dickson	Software, Data curation	None
David C. James	Resources	None
Martin Nicklin	Resources	None
Jon Sayers	Methodology, Writing – Review & Editing	None
Domen Zafred	Methodology, Writing – Review & Editing	None
Sarah Rowland-Jones	Conceptualisation, Writing – Review & Editing	None
Goura Kudesia	Conceptualisation, validation, methodology	None
Adam Kucharski	Conceptualisation, methodology	None
CMMID COVID-19 Working Group	Writing - review & editing	None
Thomas C. Darton	Conceptualisation, methodology, formal analysis, writing – review & editing	None
Thushan I. de Silva	Conceptualisaton, investigation, methodology, supervision, writing - review & editing	None
Paul J. Collini	Conceptualisation, methodology, formal analysis, writing – review & editing	None