Table 3.
Stage 1 (no sharing), stage 2 (outbreak exacerbated by bad advice), and stage 3 (results with intervention strategies). Mean values for given outbreak characteristics, with 5–95th percentiles to indicate range without the most extreme values.
| Stage 1. No circulating advice | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| r0 or #gens | Duration (weeks) | Final attack rate | Peak attack rate | Case fatality rate | |
| Norovirus | 1.90 (1.75–2.06) | 9.4 | 78.6% | 8.6% | n/a |
| Influenza | 1.46 (1.27–1.58) | 13.6 | 59.2% | 14.0% | 0.70% |
| Monkeypox | 75th perc #gens = 4 | 7.3 | 1.3% | 0.98% | 1.04% |
| Stage 2. Circulating advice makes outbreak worse, r0 increased by 40% or #gens from 4 to 7. Good:bad advice ratio is still 50:50 | |||||
| r0 or #gens | Duration (weeks) | Final attack rate | Peak attack rate | Case fatality rate | |
| Norovirus | 2.66 (2.44–2.89)** | 8.7** | 91.8%** | 10.7%** | n/a |
| Influenza | 2.08 (1.78–2.32) ** | 14.9** | 82.7%** | 18.2%** | 0.62%** |
| Monkeypox | 75th perc #gens = 7 | 9.9 | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.39%** |
| Stage 3.1. Strategies to reduce impacts of circulating bad advice in stage 2 conditions: ratio advice needed to revert to stage 1 r0 or #gens | |||||
| Good:bad advice ratio | Duration (weeks) | Final attack rate | Peak attack rate | Case fatality rate | |
| Norovirus | 59:41* | 9.2 | 79.2%* | 8.9% | n/a |
| Influenza | 60:40 | 14.4 | 59.0% | 13.4% | 0.73% |
| Monkeypox | 61:39 | 7.1 | 7.3% | 1.0% | 1.33% |
| Stage 3.2. Stage 2 conditions, but if good:bad advice ratio is 90:10 | |||||
| r0 or #gens | Duration (weeks) | Final attack rate | Peak attack rate | Case fatality rate | |
| Norovirus | 0.99 (0.95–1.03)** | 3.9** | 21.1%** | 3.9%** | n/a |
| Influenza | 0.88 (0.76–0.99) ** | 5.1** | 12.8%** | 5.0%** | 0.74%** |
| Monkeypox | 75th perc #gens = 3** | 5.6** | 1.2%* | 1.0% | 0.96% |
| Stage 3.3. Stage 2 conditions, what % of agents need to be “immunized” against bad advice, needed to revert to stage 1 r0 or #gens | |||||
| % “immunized” | Duration (weeks) | Final attack rate | Peak attack rate | Case fatality rate | |
| Norovirus | 20% | 9.3 | 78.5% | 8.9% | n/a |
| Influenza | 22.5% | 15.2** | 59.6% | 13.1%* | 0.42% |
| Monkeypox | 20–40% | 6.9–8.4 | 1.3–1.5% | 0.98–1.04% | 0.86–1.34% |
| Stage 3.4. Stage 2 conditions, but if 90% of agents are “immunized” | |||||
| r0 or #gens | Duration (weeks) | Final attack rate | Peak attack rate | Case fatality rate | |
| Norovirus | 1.11 (1.03–1.22)** | 5.0** | 31.6%** | 4.8%** | n/a |
| Influenza | 1.02 (0.88–1.13) ** | 7.1** | 22.4%** | 7.5%** | 0.15%** |
| Monkeypox | 75th perc #gens = 3* | 5.6* | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.96% |
Note: “immunized” means acquired perfect resistance against believing or sharing bad advice, rather than inability to catch norovirus, influenza, or monkeypox. 75th perc #gens is the 75th percentile value (among all eligible simulations) for number of disease transmission generations; 75% of simulations had this number or fewer transmissions. Statistical significance: Wilcoxon rank sum tests with stage 1 outcomes as reference: ** means p < 0.01, while * means 0.01 < p < 0.05.