Table 3.
Predicted proportions of 30 day re-admissions by age and calendar year
| All years | 2002 - 2006 | 2014 - 2018 | Relative diff. (%)a P Interactionb | Average annual percent change per year (95% CI)c | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All admissions | ||||||
| All | 0.21 (0.20, 0.21) | 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) | 0.22 (0.22, 0.23) | 18.1 | Ref | 1.4 (1.3,1.5) |
| <= 39 | 0.21 (0.17, 0.26) | 0.21 (0.19-0.23) | 0.21 (0.19-0.22) | -3.8 | 0.003 | -0.4 (-1.7,1.0) |
| 40-49 | 0.18 (0.159, 0.214) | 0.17 (0.16-0.18) | 0.19 (0.18-0.20) | 11.6 | 0.105 | 0.8 (-0.1,1.7) |
| 50-59 | 0.18 (0.168, 0.200) | 0.17 (0.16-0.17) | 0.20 (0.19-0.21) | 18.5 | 0.413 | 1.3 (0.8,1.8) |
| 60-69 | 0.19 (0.182, 0.202) | 0.18 (0.18-0.18) | 0.20 (0.20-0.21) | 14.5 | 0.051 | 1.1 (0.8,1.4) |
| 70-79 | 0.20 (0.195, 0.209) | 0.19 (0.18-0.19) | 0.22 (0.22-0.22) | 18.9 | Ref | 1.5 (1.3,1.7) |
| 80-89 | 0.21 (0.206, 0.218) | 0.19 (0.19-0.20) | 0.23 (0.23-0.23) | 18.0 | 0.406 | 1.4 (1.2,1.5) |
| >= 90 | 0.22 (0.204, 0.226) | 0.19 (0.19-0.19) | 0.23 (0.23-0.24) | 23.8 | 0.118 | 1.7 (1.4,2.0) |
| HF admissions | ||||||
| All | 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) | 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) | 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) | 5.4 | Ref | 0.5 (0.3,0.7) |
| <= 39 | 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) | 0.05 (0.04, 0.07) | 0.05 (0.04, 0.07) | 3.8 | 0.713 | -0.1 (-2.8,2.5) |
| 40-49 | 0.06 (0.04, 0.07) | 0.05 (0.04, 0.06) | 0.05 (0.05, 0.06) | 17.8 | 0.313 | 1.5 (-0.2,3.3) |
| 50-59 | 0.05 (0.04, 0.06) | 0.05 (0.04, 0.06) | 0.06 (0.05, 0.06) | 16.3 | 0.364 | 1.0 (0.0,2.0) |
| 60-69 | 0.05 (0.05, 0.06) | 0.06 (0.05, 0.06) | 0.06 (0.05, 0.06) | 3.6 | 0.994 | 0.4 (-0.2,1.1) |
| 70-79 | 0.06 (0.05, 0.06) | 0.06 (0.05, 0.06) | 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) | 5.5 | Ref | 0.5 (0.0,1.0) |
| 80-89 | 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) | 0.06 (0.05, 0.06) | 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) | 3.6 | 0.766 | 0.3 (-0.1,0.8) |
| >= 90 | 0.06 (0.05, 0.06) | 0.05 (0.05, 0.06) | 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) | 11.5 | 0.246 | 0.9 (0.3,1.6) |
| Other CV | ||||||
| All | 0.03 (0.03, 0.03) | 0.03 (0.03, 0.03) | 0.03 (0.03, 0.03) | -12.5 | Ref | -1.1 (-1.4,-0.8) |
| <= 39 | 0.04 (0.03, 0.05) | 0.05 (0.04, 0.07) | 0.03 (0.03, 0.04) | -35.8 | 0.136 | -3.3 (-6.2,-0.3) |
| 40-49 | 0.04 (0.03, 0.04) | 0.04 (0.03, 0.05) | 0.04 (0.03, 0.04) | -10.0 | 0.993 | -0.8 (-2.8,1.1) |
| 50-59 | 0.03 (0.03, 0.03) | 0.03 (0.03, 0.04) | 0.04 (0.03, 0.04) | 9.4 | 0.104 | 0.3 (-0.8,1.5) |
| 60-69 | 0.03 (0.03, 0.03) | 0.03 (0.03, 0.04) | 0.03 (0.03, 0.03) | -11.8 | 0.575 | -1.1 (-1.9,-0.3) |
| 70-79 | 0.03 (0.03, 0.03) | 0.03 (0.03, 0.03) | 0.03 (0.03, 0.03) | -12.5 | Ref | -0.8 (-1.4,-0.3) |
| 80-89 | 0.03 (0.03, 0.03) | 0.03 (0.03, 0.03) | 0.03 (0.02, 0.03) | -19.4 | 0.038 | -1.6 (-2.1,-1.1) |
| >= 90 | 0.02 (0.02, 0.03) | 0.03 (0.02, 0.03) | 0.02 (0.02, 0.03) | -4.0 | 0.361 | -0.3 (-1.2,0.6) |
| Non CV | ||||||
| All | 0.12 (0.11, 0.12) | 0.10 (0.10, 0.10) | 0.13 (0.13, 0.14) | 36.7 | Ref | 2.6 (2.4,2.7) |
| <= 39 | 0.11 (0.07, 0.17) | 0.10 (0.09, 0.12) | 0.11 (0.10, 0.13) | 11.8 | 0.084 | 0.8 (-1.1,2.7) |
| 40-49 | 0.09 (0.07, 0.13) | 0.09 (0.08, 0.10) | 0.10 (0.09, 0.11) | 18.8 | 0.029 | 1.1 (-0.2,2.4) |
| 50-59 | 0.09 (0.08, 0.11) | 0.08 (0.08, 0.09) | 0.10 (0.10, 0.11) | 26.8 | 0.065 | 1.9 (1.1,2.7) |
| 60-69 | 0.10 (0.09, 0.11) | 0.09 (0.08, 0.09) | 0.12 (0.11, 0.12) | 34.9 | 0.33 | 2.4 (1.9,2.9) |
| 70-79 | 0.11 (0.11, 0.12) | 0.09 (0.09, 0.10) | 0.13 (0.13, 0.14) | 40.4 | Ref | 2.8 (2.4,3.1) |
| 80-89 | 0.12 (0.12, 0.13) | 0.10 (0.10, 0.11) | 0.14 (0.14, 0.15) | 37.9 | 0.705 | 2.7 (2.4,3.0) |
| >= 90 | 0.13 (0.12, 0.14) | 0.11 (0.10, 0.11) | 0.15 (0.14, 0.15) | 37.0 | 0.539 | 2.6 (2.1,3.1) |
All proportions are estimated using the sum of first readmissions within 30-days of discharge from hospital as the numerator and all live discharges as the denominator. Live discharges are from all survivors of the index admission with HF, during the study time window (1st January 2002 and 31st December 2018).
CV, cardiovascular; Relative diff., relative difference; CI, confidence interval.
relative percentage difference in admission proportions between the first and second diagnosis time periods, calculated by 100*([time-period 2 – time period 1] / time-period 1].
P value for the difference in trend lines between groups, compared to the reference group. Estimated by fitting an interaction term between calendar year and group in the quasipoisson models also containing age.
Average annual percentage change in rates (per 100 person-years) for each increasing year of index HF admission