Figure 2.
COVIDSIMa projections of the COVID-19 epidemic for different vaccine rollout and back-to-school effect scenarios, France, June 2021
COVID-19: coronavirus disease; ICU: intensive care unit.
a COVIDSIM model projections were performed according to [15].
Scenario A: Fast vaccine rollout (66% of the whole French population is assumed fully vaccinated on 1 September) and constant background contact rate (the transmission increase is solely due to the spread of the Delta variant, assumed to be 70% more transmissible than the Alpha variant).
Scenario B: Slower vaccine rollout (−5% coverage by the end of the summer compared with scenario A) and constant background contact rate.
Scenario C: Fast vaccine rollout and strong summertime loosening of preventive measures (+10% increase in background contact rate from 14 July compared with June 2021).
Scenario D: Fast vaccine rollout and strong back-to-school effect (+20% increase in background contact rate from 1 September compared with June 2021).
The blue stripes represent the current nationwide COVID-19 ICU bed occupancy according to the three scenarios. The width of each stripe corresponds to the range spanned by 95% of the associated simulations. The turquoise dots are the rolling 7-day average of national COVID-19 ICU bed occupancy. The orange vertical line indicates the day the simulation was performed.
