Fig. 3.
Predictions for the three classes provided by the SIR model for the first wave (a-c-e) and the second wave (b-d-f) in Italy. The model simulates the long-term behaviour of the epidemic dynamics in Italy, i.e. 304 days after the 27th of February 2020 (a-c-e) and 153 days after the 29th of September 2020 (b-d-f) when the epidemic broke out for the first and second wave infection, respectively. Blue lines represent susceptible S(t), red lines represent infected I(t), green lines represent recovered R(t), turquoise lines represent confirmed individuals predicted by the SIR model, grey lines correspond either to the actual registered confirmed cases in Italy (c–d), or to the actual registered recovered people in Italy (e–f). A model with asymptomatic infectives: the A-SIR model.