Fig. 6.
Predictions for the three classes provided by the A-SIR model during the first wave (a-c-e) and the second wave (b-d-f) in Italy. The model simulates the long-term behaviour of the epidemic dynamics in Italy, i.e. 304 days after the 27th of February 2020 (a-c-e) and 153 days after the 29th of September 2020 (b-d-f) when the epidemic broke out in Italy for the first and second wave infection, respectively. (a–b) Blue lines represent susceptible S(t); dark green lines represent the asymptomatic recovered U(t); green lines represent the symptomatic recovered R(t); orange lines represent asymptomatic infectives J(t); red lines represent symptomatic infectives I(t). (c–d) Water blue lines represent the total number of confirmed I(t) + J(t) + R(t) + U(t) (i.e., symptomatic and asymptomatic) predicted by the A-SIR model; dark green lines represent the asymptomatic confirmed J(t) + U(t) predicted by the A-SIR model; blue lines represent the confirmed cases predicted by the SIR model; green lines represent the symptomatic confirmed I(t)+R(t) predicted by the A-SIR model; and grey lines correspond to the actual registered confirmed cases in Italy. (e–f): Water blue lines represent the total number of recovered R(t) + U(t) (i.e., symptomatic and asymptomatic) predicted by the A-SIR model; dark green lines represent the asymptomatic recovered U(t) predicted by the A-SIR model; blue lines represent the recovered individuals predicted by the SIR model; green lines represent the symptomatic recovered R(t) predicted by the A-SIR model; and grey lines correspond to the actual registered recovered people in Italy.