Table 1.

Maximum likelihood estimates and corresponding 95% CIs for a model with a 7-d lag

	Final model
Parameter	Relative risk	95% CI	P value
Endemic
Intercept	11.071	(7.150, 17.142)	—
Within-country
Intercept	0.958	(0.550, 1.669)	—
log(population)	1.036	(0.956, 1.123)	0.391
HDI	0.957	(0.819, 1.118)	0.580
Landlocked	0.674	(0.531, 0.857)	0.001
${\mathrm{S}\mathrm{t}\mathrm{r}\mathrm{i}\mathrm{n}\mathrm{g}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{n}\mathrm{c}\mathrm{y}}_{t-7}$	1.872	(1.170, 3.000)	0.008
${\mathrm{T}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{s}\mathrm{t}\mathrm{i}\mathrm{n}\mathrm{g}}_{t-7}$	0.817	(0.729, 0.918)	0.001
${\mathrm{R}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{i}\mathrm{n}}_{t-7}$	1.045	(0.981, 1.112)	0.175
${\mathrm{T}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{m}\mathrm{p}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{r}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{t}\mathrm{u}\mathrm{r}\mathrm{e}}_{t-7}$	1.106	(1.014, 1.206)	0.023
${\mathrm{H}\mathrm{u}\mathrm{m}\mathrm{i}\mathrm{d}\mathrm{i}\mathrm{t}\mathrm{y}}_{t-7}$	0.856	(0.780, 0.940)	0.001
Between-country
Intercept	0.045	(0.004, 0.481)	—
log(population)	1.428	(0.923, 2.210)	0.110
HDI	1.239	(0.584, 2.628)	0.576
Landlocked	0.844	(0.306, 2.323)	0.742
${\mathrm{S}\mathrm{t}\mathrm{r}\mathrm{i}\mathrm{n}\mathrm{g}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{n}\mathrm{c}\mathrm{y}}_{t-7}$	1.630	(0.560, 4.749)	0.380
${\mathrm{T}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{s}\mathrm{t}\mathrm{i}\mathrm{n}\mathrm{g}}_{t-7}$	2.322	(1.676, 3.218)	<0.0001
$\rho$	2.186	(1.532, 2.839)	—
$\psi$	1.703	(1.631, 1.775)	—

For climatic variables, a 1 SD increase in climatic variables results in the shown relative risk. For stringency index, a 10% increase in stringency is associated with the increased relative risk shown. HDI and testing policy are on ordinal scales zero to three (HDI) and zero to four (testing policy). Bolded estimates are statistically significant. The spatial weight decay, $\rho$, reflects the strength of intercountry connectivity, and $\psi$, reflects the overdispersion parameter.