Table 1:

Final multivariable prediction model^*

Predictor	β Coefficient	SE	Odds ratio (OR)	95%CI	P-value
Anthropometry
Age	0.045648	0.0074286	1.05	1.03-1.06	<0.001
BMI	−0.0386336	0.0148288	0.96	0.93-0.99	0.012
Medication use
PPIs	0.4307414	0.2344925	1.54	1.14-2.07	0.005
Laboratory studies
Total cholesterol (mmol/L)	−0.2418048	0.1040687	0.79	0.61-1.02	0.068
LDL (mmol/L)	0.1995238	0.3666574	1.22	0.68-2.20	0.507
LDL2	0.0101408	0.0332521	1.01	0.95-1.08	0.758
Alkaline phosphatase (U/L)	0.0057762	0.0013348	1.01	1.00-1.01	<0.001
Alkaline phosphatase2	−2.00e-06	1.05e-06	0.99	0.9999959-1.0	0.057
ALT (U/L)	0.0099102	0.0025566	1.01	1.00-1.01	<0.001
ALT2	−6.44e-06	3.48e-06	0.99	0.9999867-1.0	0.064
Intercept	−8.735021	0.0001462

^*The formula of the resulting prediction model is:

P_{3-year probability for pancreatic cancer following diabetes diagnosis} = e(Xβ)/1+ e(Xβ)

Xβ = 0.045648 x age − 0.0386336 x BMI + 0.4307414 x PPIs − 0.2418048 x total cholesterol + 0.1995238 LDL + 0.0101408 x LDL² + 0.0057762 x alkaline phosphatase − 2.00e-06 alkaline phosphatase² + 0.0099102 x ALT − 6.44e-06 − 8.735021