Fig 2. Scenarios of pandemic evolution for vaccination at different values of vaccination coverage and vaccination rates and under conditions of moderate social distancing (i.e., 50%) and basal values of testing effort (i.e.; α = 0.15).
(A) Cumulative number of infections, (B) daily number of new symptomatic cases and maximum bed occupancy (inset) for vaccination scenarios in which the vaccine coverage is kept constant at 30% Po (φ = 0.30), the effectiveness of the social distancing measures is 50% (σ = 0.50), a basal level of testing is established (α = 0.15). (C) Cumulative number of infections, (D) daily number of new symptomatic cases and maximum bed occupancy (inset) for vaccination scenarios in which the vaccine coverage is kept constant at 50% Po (φ = 0.50; σ = 0.50; and α = 0.15). (E) Cumulative number of infections, (F) daily number of new symptomatic cases and maximum bed occupancy (inset) for vaccination scenarios in which the vaccine coverage is kept constant at 70% Po (φ = 0.70; σ = 0.50; and α = 0.15). For all these cases, different vaccination rates such that: the entire population could be vaccinated within a year (vaccination at γ = Po year-1; orange curve); within six months (vaccination at γ = 2 Po year-1; grey curve); or within three months (vaccination at γ = 4 Po year-1; yellow curve). A reference scenario without vaccination is included in all panels (blue curve). Numbers indicate the percentage of reduction of symptomatic cases that results from the application of each vaccination rate with respect to the reference case. The number of immune subjects at different times, in accordance with different vaccination rates, is indicated with the same color code in the secondary axis.