Table 2. Model estimated parameters for each study site.

The symbols used in this table are explained in Table 1. Values in parentheses are 95% confidence intervals based on the profile likelihood. An example of the profile likelihoods for Model D in Kumasi is provided in Fig. S2.

Parameter	R0	ωm months	b1	Φ1 months	b2	Φ2 months	h	d3	sc	ωv months	BIC
				Accra
Model A	37.861 (36.22–39.54)	4.838 (4.46–5.23)	0.077	7.203	0.132	1.037	0.107	9.54E-06	0.989 (0.87–1.0)		1473.093
Model B	37.861 (36.22–39.54)	4.838 (4.46–5.23)	0.077	7.203	0.132	1.037	0.107	9.54E-06	0.989 (0.71–1.0)	24.102 (11.11–48.38)	1467.183
Model C	35.69 (34.24–37.52)	4.276 (3.72–4.68)	0.068	7.185	0.126	1.042	0.099	2.92E-05	0.987 (0.82–1.0)		1471.098
Model D	38.815 (37.35–40.36)	4.848 (4.32–5.29)	0.073	7.205	0.121	1.545	0.1	3.11E-05	0.961 (0.87–1.0)	26.342 (15.94–52.92)	1466.643
				Kumasi
Model A	33.661 (29.5–36.2)	4.714 (3.46–5.75)	0.167	4.127	0.498	1.055	0.017	3.09E-07	0.734 (0.35–0.96)		656.518
Model B	33.661 (29.5–36.2)	4.714 (3.46–5.75)	0.167	4.127	0.498	1.055	0.017	3.09E-07	0.649 (0.42–0.88)	5.33 (1.23–14.29)	657.557
Model C	36.951 (33.2–40.4)	5.706 (4.56–6.72)	0.143	4.012	0.376	1.101	0.016	1.75E-07	0.81 (0.49–1.0)		615.916
Model D	38.589 (36.0-41.75)	5.989 (4.89–6.9)	0.144	4.034	0.373	1.104	0.016	1.88E-07	0.733 (0.38–0.93)	4.591 (1.4–10)	617.498
				Navrongo
Model A	31.529 (30.36–32.78)	1.890 (0.39–3.18)	0.999	1.050	6.63E-08	5.125	0.012	2.54E-05	0.243 (0.08–0.36)		585.837
Model B	31.529 (30.36–32.78)	1.890 (0.39–3.18)	0.999	1.050	6.63E-08	5.125	0.012	2.54E-05	0.203 (0.08–0.32)	5.26 (2.46–8.4)	585.266
Model C	30.91 (29.87–31.71)	3.565 (2.64–4.44)	0.999	1.044	1.92E-08	4.755	0.013	3.46E-05	0.177 (0.10–0.37)		576.391
Model D	31.348 (30.48–32.18)	3.554 (2.71–4.53)	0.999	1.045	4.2E-08	3.574	0.013	2.23E-05	0.18 (0.04–0.32)	6.281 (2.7–11.76)	575.599