Table 1.

Plague Parameter Values and Sources.

Parameter	Description	Value	Source
Initial Susceptible Population	Sum of populations in districts with plague	13,731,412 people	[4]
$r_R$	Rat reproductive rate	5 rats/day	[11,20]
$K_R$	Rat carrying capacity	2500 rats	[11]
$p$	Probability of inherited resistance of rats	0.975	[11,21]
${\beta }_R$	Transmission rate of bubonic plague to rats	4.7 contacts/(rat-day)	[11,22,23,24]
α	Flea searching efficiency	0.004	[11]
$m_R$	(Infectious period of bubonic plague in rats)−1	0.05 people/day	[11]
$d_R$	Death rate of rats	0.2 rats/day	[11,20,25]
$g_R$	Probability of recovery in rats	0.02	[11]
$r_F$	Flea reproductive rate	20 fleas/day	[11]
$K_F$	Flea carrying capacity per rat	6.57 fleas/rat	[11,21]
$d_F$	Death rate of fleas	10 fleas/day	[11,25]
$\alpha$	Flea searching efficiency	0.004	[11]
${\epsilon }_B$	(Latency period of bubonic plague)−1	0.25 people/day	[11]
${\epsilon }_P$	(Latency period of pneumonic plague)−1	0.23 people/day	[19]
${\gamma }_{\mathit{BS}}$	Progression rate: bubonic to septicemic plague	0.001 people/day	Assumed
${\gamma }_{\mathit{BP}}$	Progression rate: bubonic to pneumonic plague	0.001 people/day	Assumed
${\gamma }_{\mathit{SP}}$	Progression rate: septicemic to pneumonic plague	0.001 people/day	Assumed
$m_{\mathit{HB}}$	(Infectious period of bubonic plague in humans)−1	0.04 people/day	[11]
$m_{\mathit{HS}}$	(Infectious period of septicemic plague)−1	0.07 people/day	Assumed
$m_{\mathit{HP}}$	(Infectious period of pneumonic plague)−1	0.4 people/day	[19]
$g_{\mathit{HS}}$	Probability of recovery from septicemic plague	0.8	[2,4,8]
${\beta }_{\mathit{HB}}$	Transmission rate of bubonic plague to humans	Phase 1–3: 0.2 contacts/(person-day)	Calibrated
		Phase 4: 0 contacts/(person-day)
${\beta }_{\mathit{HP}}$	Transmission rate of pneumonic plague between humans at each phase (step)	Phase 1: 0.64 contacts/(person-day)	Calibrated
		Phase 2: 0.68 contacts/(person-day)
		Phase 3: 0.10 contacts/(person-day)
		Phase 4: 0 contacts/(person-day)
$g_{\mathit{HB}}$	Probability of recovering from bubonic plague at each phase (step)	Phase 1: 0.90	Calibrated
		Phase 2: 0.91
		Phase 3: 0.94
		Phase 4: 0.99
$g_{\mathit{HP}}$	Probability of recovering from pneumonic plague at each phase (step)	Phase 1: 0.81	Calibrated
		Phase 2: 0.9
		Phase 3: 0.93
		Phase 4: 0.99