Figure 6.

Causal effect of the change in health surveillance system after 2010 (A. Original, B. Cumulative). Significant causal effect of the change in public health policies was assessed using Bayesian one-sided tail-area probability (p = 0.03). The relative number of leptospirosis cases showed an increase of 38%, however, the 95% credible interval on this increase overlapped the 0 [−1%, +81%] during the whole time observed after the change in surveillance system (the arrow on the top of the dashed line indicates the change in health surveillance system).