Table 3.
Median (M), lower (L) and upper (U) 95% prediction intervals for the number of pigs dying of classical swine fever in the week preceding day 15 post introduction to the herd
| Scenario | Herd size | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 100 | 200 | 1,000 | ||||||||||
| M | L | U | M | L | U | M | L | U | M | L | U | ||
| Short infectious period | Low transmission rate | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| Medium transmission rate | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 7 | |
| High transmission rate | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 22 | |
| Long infectious period | Low transmission rate | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| Medium transmission rate | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 8 | |
| High transmission rate | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 16 | |