Table 4.

Median (M), lower (L) and upper (U) 95% prediction intervals for the time (days post introduction) to 10% fever prevalence of classical swine fever virus in a pig herd of a unit size of 50, 100, 200 and 1,000 pigs

Scenario		Herd size
		50			100			200			1,000
		M	L	U	M	L	U	M	L	U	M	L	U
Short infectious period	Low transmission rate	23	13	41	27	18	49	32	24	52	45	35	59
	Medium transmission rate	12	9	16	14	11	19	16	13	21	20	17	24
	High transmission rate	10	7	13	10	7	13	11	9	14	14	12	17
Long infectious period	Low transmission rate	21	13	36	25	16	40	30	22	43	41	33	57
	Medium transmission rate	12	9	17	14	11	17	16	12	21	20	17	24
	High transmission rate	9	7	12	10	8	14	11	9	15	14	12	17