Table 5.
Median (M), lower (L) and upper (U) 95% prediction intervals for the time (days post introduction) to 95% confidence in detecting classical swine fever virus in a pig herd when testing five dead or sick pigs†
| Scenario | Herd size | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 100 | 200 | 1,000 | ||||||||||
| M | L | U | M | L | U | M | L | U | M | L | U | ||
| Short infectious period | Low transmission rate | 5 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 20 | 5 | 34 |
| Medium transmission rate | 5 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 6 | 20 | |
| High transmission rate | 5 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 15 | |
| Long infectious period | Low transmission rate | 5 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 6 | 37 |
| Medium transmission rate | 5 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 6 | 21 | |
| High transmission rate | 5 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 15 | |
†
If fewer than five dead pigs were available at the time of sampling, additional pigs with fever were assumed to be (euthanised and) tested, so that a total of five pigs were tested.