Table 6.
Median (M), lower (L) and upper (U) 95% prediction intervals for the number of pigs dying of classical swine fever in the preceding week at 25 days post introduction to the herd
| Scenario | Herd size | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 100 | 200 | 1,000 | ||||||||||
| M | L | U | M | L | U | M | L | U | M | L | U | ||
| Short infectious period | Low transmission rate | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| Medium transmission rate | 4 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 21 | 28 | 8 | 53 | |
| High transmission rate | 3 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 15 | 17 | 10 | 23 | 89 | 66 | 105 | |
| Long infectious period | Low transmission rate | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| Medium transmission rate | 3 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 15 | 16 | 3 | 37 | |
| High transmission rate | 3 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 18 | 59 | 45 | 71 | |