Table 11.

Median (M), lower (L) and upper (U) 95% prediction intervals for the time to detection (days post introduction) of classical swine fever virus when PCR testing two dead pigs per week

Scenario		Herd size
		50			100			200			1,000
		M	L	U	M	L	U	M	L	U	M	L	U
Short infectious period	Low transmission rate	24	11	46	25	7	40	26	10	40	27	9	45
	Medium transmission rate	17	8	27	17	8	25	18	9	25	19	10	27
	High transmission rate	15	9	22	14	7	21	14	8	21	16	9	21
Long infectious period	Low transmission rate	27	10	46	28	10	44	28	10	43	30	9	49
	Medium transmission rate	19	9	28	19	11	26	19	9	27	20	9	29
	High transmission rate	16	8	25	16	10	22	15	9	21	16	9	22