Skip to main content
. 2021 Jul 21;16(7):e0254001. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0254001

Table 1. Pearson correlations between different public health-related variables with the percentage of voters in the county that voted for Donald Trump or Hilary Clinton, and the Republican margin shift (from 2012 to 2016).

All States All States All States Battle States Battle States Battle States Flip States Flip States Flip States
Variable % Trump 2016 % Clinton 2016 Rep. margin change % Trump 2016 % Clinton 2016 Rep. margin change % Trump 2016 % Clinton 2016 Rep. margin change category
Asthma -0.21 (-0.25 to -0.18) 0.26 (0.23 to 0.29) -0.05 (-0.08 to -0.01) 0.03 (-0.05 to 0.11) -0.01 (-0.09 to 0.07) 0 (-0.08 to 0.08) -0.23 (-0.34 to -0.1) 0.24 (0.11 to 0.35) 0.18 (0.06 to 0.3) Respiratory diseases
Chronic obstructive pulmonary 0.46 (0.43 to 0.49) -0.42 (-0.45 to -0.39) 0.26 (0.22 to 0.29) 0.34 (0.26 to 0.4) -0.3 (-0.37 to -0.23) 0.12 (0.04 to 0.2) 0.17 (0.05 to 0.29) -0.19 (-0.31 to -0.06) 0.47 (0.37 to 0.57) Respiratory diseases
Coal workers pneumoconiosis 0.1 (0.06 to 0.13) -0.09 (-0.13 to -0.06) 0.07 (0.03 to 0.1) 0.09 (0.01 to 0.17) -0.06 (-0.14 to 0.02) 0.12 (0.04 to 0.19) 0.22 (0.1 to 0.34) -0.19 (-0.31 to -0.07) 0.17 (0.04 to 0.29) Respiratory diseases
Interstitial lung disease -0.26 (-0.3 to -0.23) 0.26 (0.22 to 0.29) -0.07 (-0.1 to -0.03) -0.24 (-0.32 to -0.17) 0.26 (0.19 to 0.34) -0.1 (-0.18 to -0.03) -0.3 (-0.41 to -0.18) 0.27 (0.14 to 0.38) -0.07 (-0.2 to 0.06) Respiratory diseases
Mortality risk, age 0–5 0.07 (0.04 to 0.11) 0.02 (-0.02 to 0.05) 0.01 (-0.03 to 0.05) -0.08 (-0.16 to 0) 0.16 (0.08 to 0.24) -0.17 (-0.25 to -0.09) -0.1 (-0.22 to 0.03) 0.15 (0.02 to 0.27) 0.26 (0.14 to 0.38) Life expectancy and Mortality
Mortality risk, age 25–45 0.11 (0.07 to 0.14) -0.02 (-0.06 to 0.01) 0.08 (0.04 to 0.11) -0.02 (-0.1 to 0.06) 0.09 (0.01 to 0.17) -0.05 (-0.13 to 0.03) 0.06 (-0.07 to 0.18) 0 (-0.13 to 0.13) 0.47 (0.37 to 0.57) Life expectancy and Mortality
Mortality risk, age 45–65 0.16 (0.13 to 0.19) -0.06 (-0.1 to -0.03) 0.15 (0.11 to 0.18) 0.01 (-0.07 to 0.08) 0.08 (0 to 0.15) 0.01 (-0.07 to 0.09) 0.07 (-0.06 to 0.19) -0.02 (-0.14 to 0.11) 0.47 (0.36 to 0.56) Life expectancy and Mortality
Mortality risk, age 5–25 0.21 (0.18 to 0.25) -0.13 (-0.17 to -0.1) 0.11 (0.07 to 0.14) 0.1 (0.02 to 0.18) -0.04 (-0.12 to 0.04) 0.03 (-0.05 to 0.11) 0.26 (0.14 to 0.38) -0.22 (-0.34 to -0.1) 0.58 (0.49 to 0.66) Life expectancy and Mortality
Mortality risk, age 65–85 0.25 (0.21 to 0.28) -0.17 (-0.2 to -0.13) 0.2 (0.16 to 0.23) -0.02 (-0.1 to 0.06) 0.07 (-0.01 to 0.15) 0.12 (0.04 to 0.2) 0.16 (0.03 to 0.28) -0.13 (-0.26 to -0.01) 0.43 (0.32 to 0.53) Life expectancy and Mortality
prct_male_medicaid -0.16 (-0.19 to -0.12) 0.21 (0.18 to 0.24) 0.19 (0.16 to 0.22) -0.25 (-0.32 to -0.17) 0.28 (0.21 to 0.35) 0.2 (0.13 to 0.28) 0.03 (-0.09 to 0.16) -0.03 (-0.16 to 0.1) 0.53 (0.43 to 0.61) Insurance and Healthcare cost
prct_female_medicaid -0.15 (-0.19 to -0.12) 0.21 (0.18 to 0.24) 0.22 (0.18 to 0.25) -0.23 (-0.31 to -0.16) 0.27 (0.19 to 0.34) 0.23 (0.15 to 0.3) 0.04 (-0.09 to 0.17) -0.04 (-0.16 to 0.09) 0.53 (0.43 to 0.61) Insurance and Healthcare cost
Uninsured %: < = 138% of Poverty 0.25 (0.22 to 0.28) -0.2 (-0.24 to -0.17) -0.37 (-0.4 to -0.34) 0.17 (0.09 to 0.25) -0.1 (-0.18 to -0.02) -0.44 (-0.5 to -0.37) -0.13 (-0.26 to -0.01) 0.11 (-0.02 to 0.23) -0.12 (-0.24 to 0.01) Insurance and Healthcare cost
Uninsured %: < = 400% of Poverty 0.19 (0.15 to 0.22) -0.13 (-0.17 to -0.1) -0.34 (-0.37 to -0.31) 0.07 (-0.01 to 0.15) 0 (-0.08 to 0.08) -0.41 (-0.47 to -0.34) -0.13 (-0.26 to -0.01) 0.12 (-0.01 to 0.24) 0.04 (-0.09 to 0.16) Insurance and Healthcare cost
Uninsured %: All Incomes 0.22 (0.18 to 0.25) -0.15 (-0.19 to -0.12) -0.24 (-0.27 to -0.2) 0.12 (0.04 to 0.2) -0.04 (-0.12 to 0.04) -0.29 (-0.36 to -0.22) 0.02 (-0.11 to 0.14) -0.03 (-0.16 to 0.1) 0.31 (0.19 to 0.42) Insurance and Healthcare cost
Part B Drugs Actual Costs -0.33 (-0.36 to -0.29) 0.33 (0.3 to 0.36) -0.29 (-0.32 to -0.26) -0.29 (-0.36 to -0.21) 0.32 (0.25 to 0.39) -0.37 (-0.44 to -0.3) -0.44 (-0.54 to -0.33) 0.48 (0.38 to 0.57) -0.47 (-0.56 to -0.36) Insurance and Healthcare cost
Emergency Department Visits -0.39 (-0.42 to -0.36) 0.4 (0.37 to 0.43) -0.29 (-0.32 to -0.25) -0.41 (-0.47 to -0.34) 0.44 (0.38 to 0.5) -0.39 (-0.46 to -0.32) -0.49 (-0.58 to -0.38) 0.52 (0.42 to 0.61) -0.39 (-0.49 to -0.27) Insurance and Healthcare cost
Actual Per Capita Costs -0.07 (-0.11 to -0.04) 0.14 (0.1 to 0.17) -0.12 (-0.15 to -0.08) 0 (-0.08 to 0.08) 0.05 (-0.03 to 0.12) -0.1 (-0.18 to -0.02) -0.1 (-0.23 to 0.02) 0.16 (0.04 to 0.28) -0.16 (-0.28 to -0.03) Insurance and Healthcare cost
Percent Male 0.18 (0.14 to 0.21) -0.22 (-0.25 to -0.18) 0.2 (0.16 to 0.23) 0.13 (0.05 to 0.2) -0.16 (-0.24 to -0.08) 0.39 (0.32 to 0.46) 0.32 (0.2 to 0.43) -0.33 (-0.44 to -0.21) 0.52 (0.42 to 0.61) Insurance and Healthcare cost
HIV AIDS -0.31 (-0.34 to -0.27) 0.38 (0.35 to 0.41) -0.21 (-0.24 to -0.17) -0.1 (-0.18 to -0.03) 0.16 (0.08 to 0.23) -0.19 (-0.27 to -0.11) -0.4 (-0.5 to -0.29) 0.46 (0.35 to 0.55) -0.25 (-0.37 to -0.13) Infectious diseases
Lower respiratory infections 0.13
(0.1 to 0.17)
-0.05 (-0.08 to -0.01) 0.04 (0 to 0.07) -0.01 (-0.08 to 0.07) 0.07 (-0.01 to 0.15) -0.1 (-0.18 to -0.02) 0.08 (-0.05 to 0.2) -0.03 (-0.16 to 0.1) -0.02 (-0.15 to 0.11) Infectious diseases
Meningitis -0.17 (-0.21 to -0.14) 0.27 (0.23 to 0.3) -0.16 (-0.19 to -0.13) -0.25 (-0.32 to -0.18) 0.31 (0.24 to 0.38) -0.34 (-0.41 to -0.26) -0.27 (-0.39 to -0.15) 0.34 (0.23 to 0.45) -0.07 (-0.2 to 0.05) Infectious diseases
Tuberculosis -0.36 (-0.39 to -0.33) 0.44 (0.41 to 0.46) -0.24 (-0.27 to -0.21) -0.34 (-0.41 to -0.27) 0.41 (0.35 to 0.48) -0.38 (-0.44 to -0.31) -0.45 (-0.54 to -0.34) 0.5 (0.4 to 0.59) -0.19 (-0.31 to -0.06) Infectious diseases
Years of Potential Life Lost Rate 0.17 (0.13 to 0.2) -0.09 (-0.13 to -0.06) 0.21 (0.18 to 0.25) 0.05 (-0.03 to 0.14) 0.01 (-0.07 to 0.1) 0.07 (-0.01 to 0.15) 0.14 (0.02 to 0.27) -0.09 (-0.21 to 0.04) 0.39 (0.28 to 0.49) Health Outcomes
Physically Unhealthy Days 0.04 (0.01 to 0.08) 0.02 (-0.01 to 0.06) 0.12 (0.09 to 0.16) -0.19 (-0.26 to -0.11) 0.25 (0.18 to 0.33) -0.05 (-0.13 to 0.03) 0.07 (-0.06 to 0.19) -0.05 (-0.17 to 0.08) 0.37 (0.25 to 0.47) Health Outcomes
Mentally Unhealthy Days 0.02 (-0.01 to 0.06) 0.04 (0 to 0.07) 0.1 (0.07 to 0.14) -0.23 (-0.31 to -0.16) 0.31 (0.24 to 0.38) -0.11 (-0.19 to -0.03) 0.12 (-0.01 to 0.24) -0.08 (-0.21 to 0.05) 0.25 (0.13 to 0.37) Health Outcomes
Life Expectancy -0.23 (-0.26 to -0.19) 0.15 (0.12 to 0.19) -0.23 (-0.26 to -0.19) -0.08 (-0.16 to 0) 0.01 (-0.07 to 0.09) -0.13 (-0.21 to -0.05) -0.19 (-0.31 to -0.06) 0.15 (0.02 to 0.27) -0.45 (-0.55 to -0.34) Health Outcomes
Life Expectancy (White) -0.42 (-0.46 to -0.38) 0.33 (0.29 to 0.38) -0.38 (-0.42 to -0.34) -0.37 (-0.46 to -0.27) 0.28 (0.17 to 0.37) -0.38 (-0.47 to -0.28) -0.29 (-0.45 to -0.11) 0.23 (0.05 to 0.4) -0.71 (-0.79 to -0.6) Health Outcomes
Age-Adjusted Mortality 0.2 (0.16 to 0.23) -0.12 (-0.15 to -0.08) 0.21 (0.17 to 0.24) 0.09 (0.01 to 0.16) -0.02 (-0.1 to 0.06) 0.08 (0 to 0.16) 0.17 (0.04 to 0.29) -0.12 (-0.24 to 0.01) 0.44 (0.34 to 0.54) Health Outcomes
diabetes_crude 0.17 (0.14 to 0.2) -0.1 (-0.13 to -0.06) 0.23 (0.2 to 0.26) 0.13 (0.05 to 0.21) -0.07 (-0.15 to 0.01) 0.17 (0.09 to 0.25) 0.39 (0.28 to 0.49) -0.37 (-0.47 to -0.25) 0.38 (0.26 to 0.48) Health Behaviors
obesity_crude 0.16 (0.12 to 0.19) -0.1 (-0.14 to -0.07) 0.28 (0.24 to 0.31) 0.2 (0.12 to 0.27) -0.17 (-0.25 to -0.09) 0.33 (0.25 to 0.39) 0.26 (0.14 to 0.38) -0.26 (-0.38 to -0.14) 0.38 (0.27 to 0.49) Health Behaviors
physical_inactivity_crude 0.36 (0.33 to 0.39) -0.28 (-0.31 to -0.25) 0.3 (0.26 to 0.33) 0.38 (0.31 to 0.45) -0.31 (-0.38 to -0.24) 0.2 (0.13 to 0.28) 0.46 (0.35 to 0.55) -0.43 (-0.53 to -0.32) 0.53 (0.44 to 0.62) Health Behaviors
% Smokers 0.12 (0.09 to 0.16) -0.04 (-0.07 to 0) 0.35 (0.32 to 0.38) -0.03 (-0.11 to 0.05) 0.09 (0.01 to 0.17) 0.14 (0.06 to 0.22) 0.04 (-0.09 to 0.17) -0.04 (-0.16 to 0.09) 0.43 (0.32 to 0.53) Health Behaviors
Food Environment Index 0.06 (0.02 to 0.09) -0.1 (-0.13 to -0.06) 0.06 (0.03 to 0.1) -0.01 (-0.09 to 0.07) -0.02 (-0.1 to 0.06) 0.16 (0.08 to 0.24) 0.17 (0.05 to 0.3) -0.2 (-0.32 to -0.07) -0.19 (-0.31 to -0.06) Health Behaviors
% Excessive Drinking -0.16 (-0.19 to -0.12) 0.11 (0.07 to 0.14) 0.07 (0.03 to 0.1) -0.12 (-0.2 to -0.04) 0.05 (-0.03 to 0.13) 0.18 (0.1 to 0.26) -0.34 (-0.44 to -0.22) 0.3 (0.18 to 0.41) -0.25 (-0.36 to -0.12) Health Behaviors
% Food Insecure -0.14 (-0.17 to -0.1) 0.21 (0.18 to 0.24) -0.07 (-0.11 to -0.04) -0.21 (-0.28 to -0.13) 0.28 (0.21 to 0.35) -0.23 (-0.3 to -0.15) -0.15 (-0.27 to -0.02) 0.17 (0.05 to 0.29) 0.2 (0.08 to 0.32) Health Behaviors
Drug Overdose Mortality Rate 0.15 (0.11 to 0.2) -0.13 (-0.18 to -0.09) 0.3 (0.25 to 0.34) 0.12 (0.02 to 0.21) -0.07 (-0.17 to 0.03) 0.11 (0.01 to 0.21) 0.02 (-0.13 to 0.16) 0.06 (-0.09 to 0.2) 0.05 (-0.1 to 0.19) Health Behaviors
% Insufficient Sleep -0.16 (-0.19 to -0.12) 0.25 (0.22 to 0.28) 0.03 (-0.01 to 0.06) -0.27 (-0.35 to -0.2) 0.36 (0.29 to 0.43) -0.03 (-0.11 to 0.05) 0.09 (-0.04 to 0.22) -0.05 (-0.17 to 0.08) 0.14 (0.02 to 0.26) Health Behaviors
opioid_prescribing_rate 0.13 (0.09 to 0.16) -0.1 (-0.13 to -0.06) -0.02 (-0.05 to 0.02) 0.1 (0.02 to 0.18) -0.04 (-0.12 to 0.04) -0.06 (-0.14 to 0.02) 0.13 (0 to 0.25) -0.13 (-0.25 to 0) 0.16 (0.03 to 0.28) Health Behaviors
Alcohol use disorders -0.23 (-0.26 to -0.19) 0.18 (0.15 to 0.21) -0.02 (-0.06 to 0.01) -0.3 (-0.37 to -0.22) 0.27 (0.2 to 0.34) -0.02 (-0.1 to 0.06) -0.4 (-0.5 to -0.28) 0.4 (0.29 to 0.5) 0.09 (-0.04 to 0.21) Deaths of Despair
Drug use disorders 0.11 (0.07 to 0.14) -0.08 (-0.12 to -0.05) 0.09 (0.06 to 0.12) -0.15 (-0.23 to -0.07) 0.2 (0.12 to 0.27) -0.1 (-0.18 to -0.02) -0.06 (-0.18 to 0.07) 0.11 (-0.02 to 0.24) 0.04 (-0.09 to 0.17) Deaths of Despair
Interpersonal violence -0.29 (-0.32 to -0.26) 0.37 (0.34 to 0.4) -0.14 (-0.17 to -0.1) -0.3 (-0.37 to -0.22) 0.37 (0.3 to 0.43) -0.3 (-0.37 to -0.22) -0.36 (-0.47 to -0.24) 0.42 (0.31 to 0.52) -0.09 (-0.21 to 0.04) Deaths of Despair
% With Access -0.37 (-0.4 to -0.34) 0.32 (0.28 to 0.35) -0.25 (-0.28 to -0.22) -0.41 (-0.48 to -0.35) 0.39 (0.32 to 0.46) -0.21 (-0.28 to -0.13) -0.28 (-0.4 to -0.16) 0.28 (0.16 to 0.4) -0.38 (-0.48 to -0.26) Clinical Care
PCP Rate -0.35 (-0.38 to -0.32) 0.31 (0.28 to 0.35) -0.27 (-0.3 to -0.24) -0.3 (-0.37 to -0.23) 0.27 (0.2 to 0.35) -0.21 (-0.28 to -0.13) -0.35 (-0.46 to -0.23) 0.34 (0.22 to 0.45) -0.38 (-0.48 to -0.26) Clinical Care
Dentist Rate -0.38 (-0.41 to -0.35) 0.34 (0.31 to 0.37) -0.23 (-0.27 to -0.2) -0.35 (-0.42 to -0.28) 0.32 (0.25 to 0.39) -0.24 (-0.31 to -0.16) -0.47 (-0.57 to -0.37) 0.49 (0.39 to 0.58) -0.41 (-0.51 to -0.29) Clinical Care
MHP Rate -0.4 (-0.43 to -0.37) 0.35 (0.32 to 0.39) -0.23 (-0.26 to -0.19) -0.47 (-0.53 to -0.41) 0.46 (0.39 to 0.52) -0.26 (-0.33 to -0.18) -0.52 (-0.61 to -0.42) 0.5 (0.4 to 0.59) -0.35 (-0.46 to -0.23) Clinical Care
Preventable Hosp. Rate 0.13 (0.09 to 0.16) -0.05 (-0.09 to -0.02) 0.14 (0.11 to 0.17) -0.05 (-0.12 to 0.03) 0.08 (0 to 0.16) 0.16 (0.08 to 0.23) -0.02 (-0.15 to 0.1) 0.06 (-0.07 to 0.18) 0.15 (0.03 to 0.27) Clinical Care
% Screened -0.17 (-0.21 to -0.14) 0.16 (0.12 to 0.19) 0.09 (0.06 to 0.13) -0.11 (-0.19 to -0.03) 0.1 (0.02 to 0.18) 0.12 (0.04 to 0.2) -0.01 (-0.14 to 0.12) -0.03 (-0.15 to 0.1) -0.1 (-0.23 to 0.03) Clinical Care
% Vaccinated -0.23 (-0.26 to -0.19) 0.21 (0.18 to 0.25) -0.1 (-0.13 to -0.06) -0.35 (-0.42 to -0.28) 0.35 (0.28 to 0.42) -0.26 (-0.33 to -0.18) -0.34 (-0.45 to -0.22) 0.34 (0.23 to 0.45) -0.51 (-0.6 to -0.41) Clinical Care
Cardiomyopathy & myocarditis -0.2 (-0.23 to -0.16) 0.27 (0.24 to 0.31) -0.05 (-0.08 to -0.01) -0.25 (-0.32 to -0.17) 0.34 (0.27 to 0.41) -0.17 (-0.24 to -0.09) 0 (-0.13 to 0.13) 0.04 (-0.09 to 0.16) -0.09 (-0.21 to 0.04) Cardiovascular diseases
Cardiovascular diseases 0.23 (0.2 to 0.26) -0.14 (-0.17 to -0.11) 0.2 (0.17 to 0.24) 0.06 (-0.01 to 0.14) 0.01 (-0.07 to 0.09) 0.18 (0.11 to 0.26) 0.26 (0.14 to 0.38) -0.22 (-0.34 to -0.09) 0.42 (0.3 to 0.52) Cardiovascular diseases
Hypertensive heart disease -0.13 (-0.16 to -0.09) 0.18 (0.15 to 0.22) -0.13 (-0.17 to -0.1) -0.19 (-0.26 to -0.11) 0.23 (0.15 to 0.3) -0.22 (-0.3 to -0.14) -0.31 (-0.42 to -0.19) 0.32 (0.2 to 0.43) -0.12 (-0.24 to 0.01) Cardiovascular diseases
Ischemic heart disease 0.28 (0.25 to 0.31) -0.2 (-0.23 to -0.16) 0.26 (0.22 to 0.29) 0.14 (0.06 to 0.21) -0.06 (-0.14 to 0.01) 0.24 (0.17 to 0.32) 0.33 (0.21 to 0.44) -0.29 (-0.4 to -0.17) 0.47 (0.36 to 0.56) Cardiovascular diseases
Liver cancer -0.18 (-0.21 to -0.14) 0.25 (0.22 to 0.28) -0.13 (-0.16 to -0.1) -0.28 (-0.35 to -0.2) 0.32 (0.25 to 0.39) -0.12 (-0.2 to -0.04) -0.26 (-0.38 to -0.14) 0.32 (0.2 to 0.43) 0.24 (0.12 to 0.36) Cancers
Malignant skin melanoma 0.54 (0.51 to 0.56) -0.56 (-0.59 to -0.54) 0.15 (0.11 to 0.18) 0.46 (0.4 to 0.52) -0.44 (-0.5 to -0.37) -0.06 (-0.13 to 0.02) 0.34 (0.22 to 0.45) -0.36 (-0.46 to -0.24) 0.14 (0.02 to 0.27) Cancers
Stomach cancer -0.35 (-0.38 to -0.32) 0.44 (0.41 to 0.47) -0.16 (-0.2 to -0.13) -0.47 (-0.53 to -0.4) 0.52 (0.46 to 0.57) -0.13 (-0.21 to -0.05) -0.3 (-0.41 to -0.18) 0.37 (0.25 to 0.47) 0.03 (-0.09 to 0.16) Cancers
Testicular cancer 0.31 (0.28 to 0.34) -0.29 (-0.32 to -0.25) 0.27 (0.24 to 0.3) 0.25 (0.17 to 0.32) -0.23 (-0.31 to -0.16) 0.21 (0.13 to 0.29) 0.42 (0.31 to 0.52) -0.41 (-0.51 to -0.3) 0.52 (0.43 to 0.61) Cancers

Correlations for counties from all states, counties from battleground states, and counties from states that flipped from Democratic in 2012 to Republican in 2016, are presented.