Table 1. Pearson correlations between different public health-related variables with the percentage of voters in the county that voted for Donald Trump or Hilary Clinton, and the Republican margin shift (from 2012 to 2016).
All States | All States | All States | Battle States | Battle States | Battle States | Flip States | Flip States | Flip States | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Variable | % Trump 2016 | % Clinton 2016 | Rep. margin change | % Trump 2016 | % Clinton 2016 | Rep. margin change | % Trump 2016 | % Clinton 2016 | Rep. margin change | category |
Asthma | -0.21 (-0.25 to -0.18) | 0.26 (0.23 to 0.29) | -0.05 (-0.08 to -0.01) | 0.03 (-0.05 to 0.11) | -0.01 (-0.09 to 0.07) | 0 (-0.08 to 0.08) | -0.23 (-0.34 to -0.1) | 0.24 (0.11 to 0.35) | 0.18 (0.06 to 0.3) | Respiratory diseases |
Chronic obstructive pulmonary | 0.46 (0.43 to 0.49) | -0.42 (-0.45 to -0.39) | 0.26 (0.22 to 0.29) | 0.34 (0.26 to 0.4) | -0.3 (-0.37 to -0.23) | 0.12 (0.04 to 0.2) | 0.17 (0.05 to 0.29) | -0.19 (-0.31 to -0.06) | 0.47 (0.37 to 0.57) | Respiratory diseases |
Coal workers pneumoconiosis | 0.1 (0.06 to 0.13) | -0.09 (-0.13 to -0.06) | 0.07 (0.03 to 0.1) | 0.09 (0.01 to 0.17) | -0.06 (-0.14 to 0.02) | 0.12 (0.04 to 0.19) | 0.22 (0.1 to 0.34) | -0.19 (-0.31 to -0.07) | 0.17 (0.04 to 0.29) | Respiratory diseases |
Interstitial lung disease | -0.26 (-0.3 to -0.23) | 0.26 (0.22 to 0.29) | -0.07 (-0.1 to -0.03) | -0.24 (-0.32 to -0.17) | 0.26 (0.19 to 0.34) | -0.1 (-0.18 to -0.03) | -0.3 (-0.41 to -0.18) | 0.27 (0.14 to 0.38) | -0.07 (-0.2 to 0.06) | Respiratory diseases |
Mortality risk, age 0–5 | 0.07 (0.04 to 0.11) | 0.02 (-0.02 to 0.05) | 0.01 (-0.03 to 0.05) | -0.08 (-0.16 to 0) | 0.16 (0.08 to 0.24) | -0.17 (-0.25 to -0.09) | -0.1 (-0.22 to 0.03) | 0.15 (0.02 to 0.27) | 0.26 (0.14 to 0.38) | Life expectancy and Mortality |
Mortality risk, age 25–45 | 0.11 (0.07 to 0.14) | -0.02 (-0.06 to 0.01) | 0.08 (0.04 to 0.11) | -0.02 (-0.1 to 0.06) | 0.09 (0.01 to 0.17) | -0.05 (-0.13 to 0.03) | 0.06 (-0.07 to 0.18) | 0 (-0.13 to 0.13) | 0.47 (0.37 to 0.57) | Life expectancy and Mortality |
Mortality risk, age 45–65 | 0.16 (0.13 to 0.19) | -0.06 (-0.1 to -0.03) | 0.15 (0.11 to 0.18) | 0.01 (-0.07 to 0.08) | 0.08 (0 to 0.15) | 0.01 (-0.07 to 0.09) | 0.07 (-0.06 to 0.19) | -0.02 (-0.14 to 0.11) | 0.47 (0.36 to 0.56) | Life expectancy and Mortality |
Mortality risk, age 5–25 | 0.21 (0.18 to 0.25) | -0.13 (-0.17 to -0.1) | 0.11 (0.07 to 0.14) | 0.1 (0.02 to 0.18) | -0.04 (-0.12 to 0.04) | 0.03 (-0.05 to 0.11) | 0.26 (0.14 to 0.38) | -0.22 (-0.34 to -0.1) | 0.58 (0.49 to 0.66) | Life expectancy and Mortality |
Mortality risk, age 65–85 | 0.25 (0.21 to 0.28) | -0.17 (-0.2 to -0.13) | 0.2 (0.16 to 0.23) | -0.02 (-0.1 to 0.06) | 0.07 (-0.01 to 0.15) | 0.12 (0.04 to 0.2) | 0.16 (0.03 to 0.28) | -0.13 (-0.26 to -0.01) | 0.43 (0.32 to 0.53) | Life expectancy and Mortality |
prct_male_medicaid | -0.16 (-0.19 to -0.12) | 0.21 (0.18 to 0.24) | 0.19 (0.16 to 0.22) | -0.25 (-0.32 to -0.17) | 0.28 (0.21 to 0.35) | 0.2 (0.13 to 0.28) | 0.03 (-0.09 to 0.16) | -0.03 (-0.16 to 0.1) | 0.53 (0.43 to 0.61) | Insurance and Healthcare cost |
prct_female_medicaid | -0.15 (-0.19 to -0.12) | 0.21 (0.18 to 0.24) | 0.22 (0.18 to 0.25) | -0.23 (-0.31 to -0.16) | 0.27 (0.19 to 0.34) | 0.23 (0.15 to 0.3) | 0.04 (-0.09 to 0.17) | -0.04 (-0.16 to 0.09) | 0.53 (0.43 to 0.61) | Insurance and Healthcare cost |
Uninsured %: < = 138% of Poverty | 0.25 (0.22 to 0.28) | -0.2 (-0.24 to -0.17) | -0.37 (-0.4 to -0.34) | 0.17 (0.09 to 0.25) | -0.1 (-0.18 to -0.02) | -0.44 (-0.5 to -0.37) | -0.13 (-0.26 to -0.01) | 0.11 (-0.02 to 0.23) | -0.12 (-0.24 to 0.01) | Insurance and Healthcare cost |
Uninsured %: < = 400% of Poverty | 0.19 (0.15 to 0.22) | -0.13 (-0.17 to -0.1) | -0.34 (-0.37 to -0.31) | 0.07 (-0.01 to 0.15) | 0 (-0.08 to 0.08) | -0.41 (-0.47 to -0.34) | -0.13 (-0.26 to -0.01) | 0.12 (-0.01 to 0.24) | 0.04 (-0.09 to 0.16) | Insurance and Healthcare cost |
Uninsured %: All Incomes | 0.22 (0.18 to 0.25) | -0.15 (-0.19 to -0.12) | -0.24 (-0.27 to -0.2) | 0.12 (0.04 to 0.2) | -0.04 (-0.12 to 0.04) | -0.29 (-0.36 to -0.22) | 0.02 (-0.11 to 0.14) | -0.03 (-0.16 to 0.1) | 0.31 (0.19 to 0.42) | Insurance and Healthcare cost |
Part B Drugs Actual Costs | -0.33 (-0.36 to -0.29) | 0.33 (0.3 to 0.36) | -0.29 (-0.32 to -0.26) | -0.29 (-0.36 to -0.21) | 0.32 (0.25 to 0.39) | -0.37 (-0.44 to -0.3) | -0.44 (-0.54 to -0.33) | 0.48 (0.38 to 0.57) | -0.47 (-0.56 to -0.36) | Insurance and Healthcare cost |
Emergency Department Visits | -0.39 (-0.42 to -0.36) | 0.4 (0.37 to 0.43) | -0.29 (-0.32 to -0.25) | -0.41 (-0.47 to -0.34) | 0.44 (0.38 to 0.5) | -0.39 (-0.46 to -0.32) | -0.49 (-0.58 to -0.38) | 0.52 (0.42 to 0.61) | -0.39 (-0.49 to -0.27) | Insurance and Healthcare cost |
Actual Per Capita Costs | -0.07 (-0.11 to -0.04) | 0.14 (0.1 to 0.17) | -0.12 (-0.15 to -0.08) | 0 (-0.08 to 0.08) | 0.05 (-0.03 to 0.12) | -0.1 (-0.18 to -0.02) | -0.1 (-0.23 to 0.02) | 0.16 (0.04 to 0.28) | -0.16 (-0.28 to -0.03) | Insurance and Healthcare cost |
Percent Male | 0.18 (0.14 to 0.21) | -0.22 (-0.25 to -0.18) | 0.2 (0.16 to 0.23) | 0.13 (0.05 to 0.2) | -0.16 (-0.24 to -0.08) | 0.39 (0.32 to 0.46) | 0.32 (0.2 to 0.43) | -0.33 (-0.44 to -0.21) | 0.52 (0.42 to 0.61) | Insurance and Healthcare cost |
HIV AIDS | -0.31 (-0.34 to -0.27) | 0.38 (0.35 to 0.41) | -0.21 (-0.24 to -0.17) | -0.1 (-0.18 to -0.03) | 0.16 (0.08 to 0.23) | -0.19 (-0.27 to -0.11) | -0.4 (-0.5 to -0.29) | 0.46 (0.35 to 0.55) | -0.25 (-0.37 to -0.13) | Infectious diseases |
Lower respiratory infections | 0.13 (0.1 to 0.17) |
-0.05 (-0.08 to -0.01) | 0.04 (0 to 0.07) | -0.01 (-0.08 to 0.07) | 0.07 (-0.01 to 0.15) | -0.1 (-0.18 to -0.02) | 0.08 (-0.05 to 0.2) | -0.03 (-0.16 to 0.1) | -0.02 (-0.15 to 0.11) | Infectious diseases |
Meningitis | -0.17 (-0.21 to -0.14) | 0.27 (0.23 to 0.3) | -0.16 (-0.19 to -0.13) | -0.25 (-0.32 to -0.18) | 0.31 (0.24 to 0.38) | -0.34 (-0.41 to -0.26) | -0.27 (-0.39 to -0.15) | 0.34 (0.23 to 0.45) | -0.07 (-0.2 to 0.05) | Infectious diseases |
Tuberculosis | -0.36 (-0.39 to -0.33) | 0.44 (0.41 to 0.46) | -0.24 (-0.27 to -0.21) | -0.34 (-0.41 to -0.27) | 0.41 (0.35 to 0.48) | -0.38 (-0.44 to -0.31) | -0.45 (-0.54 to -0.34) | 0.5 (0.4 to 0.59) | -0.19 (-0.31 to -0.06) | Infectious diseases |
Years of Potential Life Lost Rate | 0.17 (0.13 to 0.2) | -0.09 (-0.13 to -0.06) | 0.21 (0.18 to 0.25) | 0.05 (-0.03 to 0.14) | 0.01 (-0.07 to 0.1) | 0.07 (-0.01 to 0.15) | 0.14 (0.02 to 0.27) | -0.09 (-0.21 to 0.04) | 0.39 (0.28 to 0.49) | Health Outcomes |
Physically Unhealthy Days | 0.04 (0.01 to 0.08) | 0.02 (-0.01 to 0.06) | 0.12 (0.09 to 0.16) | -0.19 (-0.26 to -0.11) | 0.25 (0.18 to 0.33) | -0.05 (-0.13 to 0.03) | 0.07 (-0.06 to 0.19) | -0.05 (-0.17 to 0.08) | 0.37 (0.25 to 0.47) | Health Outcomes |
Mentally Unhealthy Days | 0.02 (-0.01 to 0.06) | 0.04 (0 to 0.07) | 0.1 (0.07 to 0.14) | -0.23 (-0.31 to -0.16) | 0.31 (0.24 to 0.38) | -0.11 (-0.19 to -0.03) | 0.12 (-0.01 to 0.24) | -0.08 (-0.21 to 0.05) | 0.25 (0.13 to 0.37) | Health Outcomes |
Life Expectancy | -0.23 (-0.26 to -0.19) | 0.15 (0.12 to 0.19) | -0.23 (-0.26 to -0.19) | -0.08 (-0.16 to 0) | 0.01 (-0.07 to 0.09) | -0.13 (-0.21 to -0.05) | -0.19 (-0.31 to -0.06) | 0.15 (0.02 to 0.27) | -0.45 (-0.55 to -0.34) | Health Outcomes |
Life Expectancy (White) | -0.42 (-0.46 to -0.38) | 0.33 (0.29 to 0.38) | -0.38 (-0.42 to -0.34) | -0.37 (-0.46 to -0.27) | 0.28 (0.17 to 0.37) | -0.38 (-0.47 to -0.28) | -0.29 (-0.45 to -0.11) | 0.23 (0.05 to 0.4) | -0.71 (-0.79 to -0.6) | Health Outcomes |
Age-Adjusted Mortality | 0.2 (0.16 to 0.23) | -0.12 (-0.15 to -0.08) | 0.21 (0.17 to 0.24) | 0.09 (0.01 to 0.16) | -0.02 (-0.1 to 0.06) | 0.08 (0 to 0.16) | 0.17 (0.04 to 0.29) | -0.12 (-0.24 to 0.01) | 0.44 (0.34 to 0.54) | Health Outcomes |
diabetes_crude | 0.17 (0.14 to 0.2) | -0.1 (-0.13 to -0.06) | 0.23 (0.2 to 0.26) | 0.13 (0.05 to 0.21) | -0.07 (-0.15 to 0.01) | 0.17 (0.09 to 0.25) | 0.39 (0.28 to 0.49) | -0.37 (-0.47 to -0.25) | 0.38 (0.26 to 0.48) | Health Behaviors |
obesity_crude | 0.16 (0.12 to 0.19) | -0.1 (-0.14 to -0.07) | 0.28 (0.24 to 0.31) | 0.2 (0.12 to 0.27) | -0.17 (-0.25 to -0.09) | 0.33 (0.25 to 0.39) | 0.26 (0.14 to 0.38) | -0.26 (-0.38 to -0.14) | 0.38 (0.27 to 0.49) | Health Behaviors |
physical_inactivity_crude | 0.36 (0.33 to 0.39) | -0.28 (-0.31 to -0.25) | 0.3 (0.26 to 0.33) | 0.38 (0.31 to 0.45) | -0.31 (-0.38 to -0.24) | 0.2 (0.13 to 0.28) | 0.46 (0.35 to 0.55) | -0.43 (-0.53 to -0.32) | 0.53 (0.44 to 0.62) | Health Behaviors |
% Smokers | 0.12 (0.09 to 0.16) | -0.04 (-0.07 to 0) | 0.35 (0.32 to 0.38) | -0.03 (-0.11 to 0.05) | 0.09 (0.01 to 0.17) | 0.14 (0.06 to 0.22) | 0.04 (-0.09 to 0.17) | -0.04 (-0.16 to 0.09) | 0.43 (0.32 to 0.53) | Health Behaviors |
Food Environment Index | 0.06 (0.02 to 0.09) | -0.1 (-0.13 to -0.06) | 0.06 (0.03 to 0.1) | -0.01 (-0.09 to 0.07) | -0.02 (-0.1 to 0.06) | 0.16 (0.08 to 0.24) | 0.17 (0.05 to 0.3) | -0.2 (-0.32 to -0.07) | -0.19 (-0.31 to -0.06) | Health Behaviors |
% Excessive Drinking | -0.16 (-0.19 to -0.12) | 0.11 (0.07 to 0.14) | 0.07 (0.03 to 0.1) | -0.12 (-0.2 to -0.04) | 0.05 (-0.03 to 0.13) | 0.18 (0.1 to 0.26) | -0.34 (-0.44 to -0.22) | 0.3 (0.18 to 0.41) | -0.25 (-0.36 to -0.12) | Health Behaviors |
% Food Insecure | -0.14 (-0.17 to -0.1) | 0.21 (0.18 to 0.24) | -0.07 (-0.11 to -0.04) | -0.21 (-0.28 to -0.13) | 0.28 (0.21 to 0.35) | -0.23 (-0.3 to -0.15) | -0.15 (-0.27 to -0.02) | 0.17 (0.05 to 0.29) | 0.2 (0.08 to 0.32) | Health Behaviors |
Drug Overdose Mortality Rate | 0.15 (0.11 to 0.2) | -0.13 (-0.18 to -0.09) | 0.3 (0.25 to 0.34) | 0.12 (0.02 to 0.21) | -0.07 (-0.17 to 0.03) | 0.11 (0.01 to 0.21) | 0.02 (-0.13 to 0.16) | 0.06 (-0.09 to 0.2) | 0.05 (-0.1 to 0.19) | Health Behaviors |
% Insufficient Sleep | -0.16 (-0.19 to -0.12) | 0.25 (0.22 to 0.28) | 0.03 (-0.01 to 0.06) | -0.27 (-0.35 to -0.2) | 0.36 (0.29 to 0.43) | -0.03 (-0.11 to 0.05) | 0.09 (-0.04 to 0.22) | -0.05 (-0.17 to 0.08) | 0.14 (0.02 to 0.26) | Health Behaviors |
opioid_prescribing_rate | 0.13 (0.09 to 0.16) | -0.1 (-0.13 to -0.06) | -0.02 (-0.05 to 0.02) | 0.1 (0.02 to 0.18) | -0.04 (-0.12 to 0.04) | -0.06 (-0.14 to 0.02) | 0.13 (0 to 0.25) | -0.13 (-0.25 to 0) | 0.16 (0.03 to 0.28) | Health Behaviors |
Alcohol use disorders | -0.23 (-0.26 to -0.19) | 0.18 (0.15 to 0.21) | -0.02 (-0.06 to 0.01) | -0.3 (-0.37 to -0.22) | 0.27 (0.2 to 0.34) | -0.02 (-0.1 to 0.06) | -0.4 (-0.5 to -0.28) | 0.4 (0.29 to 0.5) | 0.09 (-0.04 to 0.21) | Deaths of Despair |
Drug use disorders | 0.11 (0.07 to 0.14) | -0.08 (-0.12 to -0.05) | 0.09 (0.06 to 0.12) | -0.15 (-0.23 to -0.07) | 0.2 (0.12 to 0.27) | -0.1 (-0.18 to -0.02) | -0.06 (-0.18 to 0.07) | 0.11 (-0.02 to 0.24) | 0.04 (-0.09 to 0.17) | Deaths of Despair |
Interpersonal violence | -0.29 (-0.32 to -0.26) | 0.37 (0.34 to 0.4) | -0.14 (-0.17 to -0.1) | -0.3 (-0.37 to -0.22) | 0.37 (0.3 to 0.43) | -0.3 (-0.37 to -0.22) | -0.36 (-0.47 to -0.24) | 0.42 (0.31 to 0.52) | -0.09 (-0.21 to 0.04) | Deaths of Despair |
% With Access | -0.37 (-0.4 to -0.34) | 0.32 (0.28 to 0.35) | -0.25 (-0.28 to -0.22) | -0.41 (-0.48 to -0.35) | 0.39 (0.32 to 0.46) | -0.21 (-0.28 to -0.13) | -0.28 (-0.4 to -0.16) | 0.28 (0.16 to 0.4) | -0.38 (-0.48 to -0.26) | Clinical Care |
PCP Rate | -0.35 (-0.38 to -0.32) | 0.31 (0.28 to 0.35) | -0.27 (-0.3 to -0.24) | -0.3 (-0.37 to -0.23) | 0.27 (0.2 to 0.35) | -0.21 (-0.28 to -0.13) | -0.35 (-0.46 to -0.23) | 0.34 (0.22 to 0.45) | -0.38 (-0.48 to -0.26) | Clinical Care |
Dentist Rate | -0.38 (-0.41 to -0.35) | 0.34 (0.31 to 0.37) | -0.23 (-0.27 to -0.2) | -0.35 (-0.42 to -0.28) | 0.32 (0.25 to 0.39) | -0.24 (-0.31 to -0.16) | -0.47 (-0.57 to -0.37) | 0.49 (0.39 to 0.58) | -0.41 (-0.51 to -0.29) | Clinical Care |
MHP Rate | -0.4 (-0.43 to -0.37) | 0.35 (0.32 to 0.39) | -0.23 (-0.26 to -0.19) | -0.47 (-0.53 to -0.41) | 0.46 (0.39 to 0.52) | -0.26 (-0.33 to -0.18) | -0.52 (-0.61 to -0.42) | 0.5 (0.4 to 0.59) | -0.35 (-0.46 to -0.23) | Clinical Care |
Preventable Hosp. Rate | 0.13 (0.09 to 0.16) | -0.05 (-0.09 to -0.02) | 0.14 (0.11 to 0.17) | -0.05 (-0.12 to 0.03) | 0.08 (0 to 0.16) | 0.16 (0.08 to 0.23) | -0.02 (-0.15 to 0.1) | 0.06 (-0.07 to 0.18) | 0.15 (0.03 to 0.27) | Clinical Care |
% Screened | -0.17 (-0.21 to -0.14) | 0.16 (0.12 to 0.19) | 0.09 (0.06 to 0.13) | -0.11 (-0.19 to -0.03) | 0.1 (0.02 to 0.18) | 0.12 (0.04 to 0.2) | -0.01 (-0.14 to 0.12) | -0.03 (-0.15 to 0.1) | -0.1 (-0.23 to 0.03) | Clinical Care |
% Vaccinated | -0.23 (-0.26 to -0.19) | 0.21 (0.18 to 0.25) | -0.1 (-0.13 to -0.06) | -0.35 (-0.42 to -0.28) | 0.35 (0.28 to 0.42) | -0.26 (-0.33 to -0.18) | -0.34 (-0.45 to -0.22) | 0.34 (0.23 to 0.45) | -0.51 (-0.6 to -0.41) | Clinical Care |
Cardiomyopathy & myocarditis | -0.2 (-0.23 to -0.16) | 0.27 (0.24 to 0.31) | -0.05 (-0.08 to -0.01) | -0.25 (-0.32 to -0.17) | 0.34 (0.27 to 0.41) | -0.17 (-0.24 to -0.09) | 0 (-0.13 to 0.13) | 0.04 (-0.09 to 0.16) | -0.09 (-0.21 to 0.04) | Cardiovascular diseases |
Cardiovascular diseases | 0.23 (0.2 to 0.26) | -0.14 (-0.17 to -0.11) | 0.2 (0.17 to 0.24) | 0.06 (-0.01 to 0.14) | 0.01 (-0.07 to 0.09) | 0.18 (0.11 to 0.26) | 0.26 (0.14 to 0.38) | -0.22 (-0.34 to -0.09) | 0.42 (0.3 to 0.52) | Cardiovascular diseases |
Hypertensive heart disease | -0.13 (-0.16 to -0.09) | 0.18 (0.15 to 0.22) | -0.13 (-0.17 to -0.1) | -0.19 (-0.26 to -0.11) | 0.23 (0.15 to 0.3) | -0.22 (-0.3 to -0.14) | -0.31 (-0.42 to -0.19) | 0.32 (0.2 to 0.43) | -0.12 (-0.24 to 0.01) | Cardiovascular diseases |
Ischemic heart disease | 0.28 (0.25 to 0.31) | -0.2 (-0.23 to -0.16) | 0.26 (0.22 to 0.29) | 0.14 (0.06 to 0.21) | -0.06 (-0.14 to 0.01) | 0.24 (0.17 to 0.32) | 0.33 (0.21 to 0.44) | -0.29 (-0.4 to -0.17) | 0.47 (0.36 to 0.56) | Cardiovascular diseases |
Liver cancer | -0.18 (-0.21 to -0.14) | 0.25 (0.22 to 0.28) | -0.13 (-0.16 to -0.1) | -0.28 (-0.35 to -0.2) | 0.32 (0.25 to 0.39) | -0.12 (-0.2 to -0.04) | -0.26 (-0.38 to -0.14) | 0.32 (0.2 to 0.43) | 0.24 (0.12 to 0.36) | Cancers |
Malignant skin melanoma | 0.54 (0.51 to 0.56) | -0.56 (-0.59 to -0.54) | 0.15 (0.11 to 0.18) | 0.46 (0.4 to 0.52) | -0.44 (-0.5 to -0.37) | -0.06 (-0.13 to 0.02) | 0.34 (0.22 to 0.45) | -0.36 (-0.46 to -0.24) | 0.14 (0.02 to 0.27) | Cancers |
Stomach cancer | -0.35 (-0.38 to -0.32) | 0.44 (0.41 to 0.47) | -0.16 (-0.2 to -0.13) | -0.47 (-0.53 to -0.4) | 0.52 (0.46 to 0.57) | -0.13 (-0.21 to -0.05) | -0.3 (-0.41 to -0.18) | 0.37 (0.25 to 0.47) | 0.03 (-0.09 to 0.16) | Cancers |
Testicular cancer | 0.31 (0.28 to 0.34) | -0.29 (-0.32 to -0.25) | 0.27 (0.24 to 0.3) | 0.25 (0.17 to 0.32) | -0.23 (-0.31 to -0.16) | 0.21 (0.13 to 0.29) | 0.42 (0.31 to 0.52) | -0.41 (-0.51 to -0.3) | 0.52 (0.43 to 0.61) | Cancers |
Correlations for counties from all states, counties from battleground states, and counties from states that flipped from Democratic in 2012 to Republican in 2016, are presented.