Table 3. For every category, we applied lasso regression to predict the percentage of voters in the county that voted for Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton, and the Republican margin shift.
| Prediction | Variable | Category | Rank in category | Overall coefficient |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rep. margin change | `Malignant skin melanoma` | Cancers | 1 | 0.02653 |
| Rep. margin change | `Colon & rectum cancer` | Cancers | 2 | 0.02544 |
| Rep. margin change | `Lip & oral cavity cancer` | Cancers | 3 | 0.01959 |
| Rep. margin change | `Tracheal, bronchus, & lung ` | Cancers | 4 | 0.01902 |
| Rep. margin change | `Multiple myeloma` | Cancers | 5 | 0.01751 |
| Rep. margin change | `Rheumatic heart disease` | Cardiovascular diseases | 1 | 0.02951 |
| Rep. margin change | `Aortic aneurysm` | Cardiovascular diseases | 2 | 0.02736 |
| Rep. margin change | `Ischemic heart disease` | Cardiovascular diseases | 3 | 0.01447 |
| Rep. margin change | `Ischemic stroke` | Cardiovascular diseases | 4 | 0.01022 |
| Rep. margin change | Endocarditis | Cardiovascular diseases | 5 | 0.00712 |
| Rep. margin change | `% Screened` | Clinical Care | 1 | 0.01589 |
| Rep. margin change | `PCP Rate` | Clinical Care | 2 | 0.01524 |
| Rep. margin change | `Preventable Hosp. Rate` | Clinical Care | 3 | 0.00636 |
| Rep. margin change | `% With Access` | Clinical Care | 4 | 0.00426 |
| Rep. margin change | `% Vaccinated` | Clinical Care | 5 | 0.00341 |
| Rep. margin change | `Self-harm` | Deaths of Despair | 1 | 0.02214 |
| Rep. margin change | `Alcohol use disorders` | Deaths of Despair | 2 | 0.01750 |
| Rep. margin change | `Drug use disorders` | Deaths of Despair | 3 | 0.00257 |
| Rep. margin change | `Interpersonal violence` | Deaths of Despair | 4 | 0.00142 |
| Rep. margin change | `% Food Insecure` | Health Behaviors | 1 | 0.03853 |
| Rep. margin change | `% Smokers` | Health Behaviors | 2 | 0.03674 |
| Rep. margin change | `% Excessive Drinking` | Health Behaviors | 3 | 0.03035 |
| Rep. margin change | `Food Environment Index` | Health Behaviors | 4 | 0.01850 |
| Rep. margin change | opioid_prescribing_rate | Health Behaviors | 5 | 0.01282 |
| Rep. margin change | Meningitis | Infectious diseases | 1 | 0.03231 |
| Rep. margin change | Hepatitis | Infectious diseases | 2 | 0.02039 |
| Rep. margin change | `Diarrheal diseases` | Infectious diseases | 3 | 0.01853 |
| Rep. margin change | `HIV AIDS` | Infectious diseases | 4 | 0.01534 |
| Rep. margin change | `Lower respiratory infections` | Infectious diseases | 5 | 0.00370 |
| Rep. margin change | `Mortality risk, age 45–65` | Life expectancy, YLL, and Mortality | 1 | 0.03939 |
| Rep. margin change | `Mortality risk, age 25–45` | Life expectancy, YLL, and Mortality | 2 | 0.03855 |
| Rep. margin change | `Years of Potential Life Lost Rate` | Life expectancy, YLL, and Mortality | 3 | 0.01646 |
| Rep. margin change | `Mortality risk, age 0–5` | Life expectancy, YLL, and Mortality | 4 | 0.01298 |
| Rep. margin change | `Age-Adjusted Mortality` | Life expectancy, YLL, and Mortality | 5 | 0.01292 |
| Rep. margin change | `Other pneumoconiosis` | Respiratory diseases | 1 | 0.02393 |
| Rep. margin change | Asthma | Respiratory diseases | 2 | 0.01047 |
| Rep. margin change | `Other chronic respiratory ` | Respiratory diseases | 3 | 0.00917 |
| Rep. margin change | Asbestosis | Respiratory diseases | 4 | 0.00529 |
| Rep. margin change | `Interstitial lung disease` | Respiratory diseases | 5 | 0.00407 |
| Rep. margin change | `% Single-Parent Households` | Social, Physical and Economic Environment | 1 | 0.05328 |
| Rep. margin change | `Firearm Fatalities Rate` | Social, Physical and Economic Environment | 2 | 0.03071 |
| Rep. margin change | `% Children in Poverty` | Social, Physical and Economic Environment | 3 | 0.01253 |
| Rep. margin change | `Injury Death Rate` | Social, Physical and Economic Environment | 4 | 0.00925 |
| Rep. margin change | `% Homeowners` | Social, Physical and Economic Environment | 5 | 0.00901 |
| % Trump 2016 | `Acute lymphoid leukemia` | Cancers | 1 | 0.03711 |
| % Trump 2016 | `Liver cancer` | Cancers | 2 | 0.02191 |
| % Trump 2016 | `Other pharynx cancer` | Cancers | 3 | 0.01915 |
| % Trump 2016 | `Nasopharynx cancer` | Cancers | 4 | 0.01814 |
| % Trump 2016 | `Kidney cancer` | Cancers | 5 | 0.01802 |
| % Trump 2016 | `Other cardiovascular` | Cardiovascular diseases | 1 | 0.01340 |
| % Trump 2016 | `Ischemic heart disease` | Cardiovascular diseases | 2 | 0.01295 |
| % Trump 2016 | `Rheumatic heart disease` | Cardiovascular diseases | 3 | 0.01012 |
| % Trump 2016 | `Aortic aneurysm` | Cardiovascular diseases | 4 | 0.00909 |
| % Trump 2016 | `Ischemic stroke` | Cardiovascular diseases | 5 | 0.00889 |
| % Trump 2016 | `% Screened` | Clinical Care | 1 | 0.02656 |
| % Trump 2016 | `MHP Rate` | Clinical Care | 2 | 0.02017 |
| % Trump 2016 | `% Vaccinated` | Clinical Care | 3 | 0.01250 |
| % Trump 2016 | `% With Access` | Clinical Care | 4 | 0.00803 |
| % Trump 2016 | `PCP Rate` | Clinical Care | 5 | 0.00722 |
| % Trump 2016 | `Self-harm` | Deaths of Despair | 1 | 0.03750 |
| % Trump 2016 | `Alcohol use disorders` | Deaths of Despair | 2 | 0.03498 |
| % Trump 2016 | `Interpersonal violence` | Deaths of Despair | 3 | 0.02354 |
| % Trump 2016 | `Drug use disorders` | Deaths of Despair | 4 | 0.00690 |
| % Trump 2016 | physical_inactivity_crude | Health Behaviors | 1 | 0.03454 |
| % Trump 2016 | `% Food Insecure` | Health Behaviors | 2 | 0.02989 |
| % Trump 2016 | `MV Mortality Rate` | Health Behaviors | 3 | 0.02536 |
| % Trump 2016 | `Food Environment Index` | Health Behaviors | 4 | 0.02194 |
| % Trump 2016 | `Teen Birth Rate` | Health Behaviors | 5 | 0.02165 |
| % Trump 2016 | Hepatitis | Infectious diseases | 1 | 0.03141 |
| % Trump 2016 | `Diarrheal diseases` | Infectious diseases | 2 | 0.02719 |
| % Trump 2016 | `HIV AIDS` | Infectious diseases | 3 | 0.02079 |
| % Trump 2016 | `Lower respiratory infections` | Infectious diseases | 4 | 0.01920 |
| % Trump 2016 | Meningitis | Infectious diseases | 5 | 0.00957 |
| % Trump 2016 | `Years of Potential Life Lost Rate` | Life expectancy, YLL, and Mortality | 1 | 0.09069 |
| % Trump 2016 | `Mortality risk, age 5–25` | Life expectancy, YLL, and Mortality | 2 | 0.07097 |
| % Trump 2016 | `YPLL Rate (White)` | Life expectancy, YLL, and Mortality | 3 | 0.04372 |
| % Trump 2016 | `Mortality risk, age 0–5` | Life expectancy, YLL, and Mortality | 4 | 0.02479 |
| % Trump 2016 | `Mortality risk, age 65–85` | Life expectancy, YLL, and Mortality | 5 | 0.02457 |
| % Trump 2016 | `Chronic obstructive pulmonary ` | Respiratory diseases | 1 | 0.04661 |
| % Trump 2016 | `Interstitial lung disease` | Respiratory diseases | 2 | 0.01623 |
| % Trump 2016 | Asthma | Respiratory diseases | 3 | 0.01243 |
| % Trump 2016 | `Other pneumoconiosis` | Respiratory diseases | 4 | 0.00720 |
| % Trump 2016 | `Other chronic respiratory ` | Respiratory diseases | 5 | 0.00712 |
| % Trump 2016 | `% Single-Parent Households` | Social, Physical and Economic Environment | 1 | 0.06653 |
| % Trump 2016 | `% Severe Housing Problems` | Social, Physical and Economic Environment | 2 | 0.03953 |
| % Trump 2016 | `Firearm Fatalities Rate` | Social, Physical and Economic Environment | 3 | 0.03877 |
| % Trump 2016 | `% Homeowners` | Social, Physical and Economic Environment | 4 | 0.01254 |
| % Trump 2016 | `% Children in Poverty` | Social, Physical and Economic Environment | 5 | 0.01000 |
This table reports the variable importance for the top variables in each category.