Table 2.
Operation of China’s URRBMI fund under the strict one-child policy
| Year | Fund income (Billion) |
Fund expenditure (Billion) |
Current balance (Billion) |
Accumulated balance (Billion) |
Accumulated balance rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1067.362 | 1067.839 | −0.478 | 527.463 | 49.42 |
| 2022 | 1168.377 | 1191.951 | −23.573 | 509.692 | 43.62 |
| 2023 | 1277.936 | 1326.617 | −48.680 | 466.618 | 36.51 |
| 2024 | 1397.312 | 1478.187 | −80.875 | 390.876 | 27.97 |
| 2025 | 1527.287 | 1642.343 | − 115.056 | 280.120 | 18.34 |
| 2030 | 2371.367 | 2820.293 | − 448.926 | −1194.312 | −50.36 |
| 2035 | 3488.818 | 4573.730 | − 1084.912 | − 5184.605 | − 148.61 |
| 2040 | 5077.579 | 7239.499 | − 2161.920 | −13,640.709 | − 268.65 |
| 2045 | 6965.448 | 10,723.183 | − 3757.736 | −28,973.696 | − 415.96 |
| 2050 | 9439.809 | 15,520.955 | − 6081.146 | −54,369.347 | −575.96 |
Note: (a) Due to space limitations, this study only reports the simulation results of some years in the table, and the same applies below. (b) When the current balance or accumulated balance becomes negative, it means that the URRBMI fund has a current deficit or an accumulated deficit; that is, the fund has a payment risk (accumulated balance rate = accumulated balance/current URRBMI funds income * 100%)
Source: The author of this manuscript calculated the data based on the collected data and actuarial models