Table 1.
Initial exponential growth rates and R0 values for South Korea, Italy, Canada, and the U.S.
| Country | ρ initial growth | R0 |
|---|---|---|
| S. Korea | 0.22(0.15,0.29) | 2.38(1.88,2.94) |
| Italy | 0.18(0.16,0.2) | 2.1(1.98,2.22) |
| Canada | 0.18(0.16,0.2) | 2.11(1.97,2.26) |
| U.S. |
0.3(0.27,0.33) |
3.07(2.81,3.35) |
| counter-measures |
sub-exponential onset |
|
| S. Korea | Feb 21 (McNeil, 2020) | March 1 |
| Italy | March 12 (D'Emilio, 2020) | March 22 |
| Canada | March 20 (CBC News, 2020) | April 3 |
| U.S. | March 13 (Alvarez, 2020) | April 6 |
Estimates of initial exponential growth rate ρ are obtained from regression fits to the early outbreak phases (Fig. 1, Fig. 2). Corresponding values of R0 assume Tlat = Tinf = 2.5 days. Estimates of the fraction of cases reported are taken from (Russell et al., 2020), see also (Russellet al., 2020).