Table 2.
Prognostic association and model performance of PLSec-AFP.
| Prognostic association | Overall performance | Discrimination | Goodness of fit | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variable | Adjusted HR or OR* | (95% CI) | Brier score** | (95% CI)*** | c-index | (95% CI)*** | AIC | (95% CI)*** | BIC | (95% CI)*** |
| Validation set 1 (n=331): Cirrhosis with mixed etiology (prospective–retrospective cohort) | ||||||||||
| PLSec-AFP | 2.71 | (1.69–4.33) | 0.116 | (0.091–0.139) | 0.73 | (0.59–0.84) | 448 | (332–575) | 450 | (333–577) |
| PLSec | 1.28 | (1.08–1.52) | 0.120 | (0.094–0.142) | 0.69 | (0.56–0.80) | 457 | (338–581) | 459 | (340–583) |
| AFP | 1.39 | (1.16–1.66) | 0.119 | (0.092–0.142) | 0.66 | (0.45–0.80) | 459 | (340–584) | 461 | (342–586) |
| Validation set 2 (n=41:123): Resolved HCV hepatitis/cirrhosis (nested case-control series) | ||||||||||
| PLSec-AFP | 3.80 | (1.66–8.66) | 0.165 | (0.131–0.184) | - | - | 104 | (97–133) | 106 | (99–135) |
| AFP | 1.69 | (0.74–3.86) | 0.186 | (0.176–0.187) | - | - | 114 | (123–137) | 116 | (125–139) |
| Validation set 3 (n=146): Resolved HCV hepatitis/cirrhosis after HCC therapies (prospective–retrospective cohort) | ||||||||||
| PLSec-AFP | 3.08 | (1.78–5.31) | 0.196 | (0.165–0.214) | 0.74 | (0.64–0.84) | 590 | (479–690) | 592 | (481–693) |
| AFP | 1.75 | (1.03–2.98) | 0.206 | (0.183–0.222) | 0.64 | (0.52–0.77) | 602 | (496–702) | 605 | (498–705) |
*
HRs were adjusted for age (as continuous), sex, obesity, diabetes, and active hazardous alcohol drinking. ORs were adjusted for obesity, diabetes, and active hazardous alcohol drinking with conditioning on the pairs of cases and the matched controls.
**
For cohort studies, integrated Brier scores were demonstrated.
***
95% confidence intervals were estimated by 1,000-time bootstrapping of the samples.
PLSec, prognostic liver secretome signature; AFP, alpha-fetoprotein; HR, hazard ratio; OR, odds ratio; CI, confidence interval; AIC, Akaike information criterion; BIC, Bayesian information criterion; HCV, hepatitis C virus; HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma.