TABLE 2. Individual-level estimated number of COVID-19 cases and COVID-19–associated hospitalizations, intensive care unit admissions, and deaths prevented after use of 2-dose mRNA COVID-19 vaccine for 120 days and number of myocarditis cases expected per million second mRNA vaccine doses administered, by sex and age group* — United States, 2021.
| Sex/Benefits and harms from mRNA vaccination | No. per million vaccine doses administered in each age group (yrs)† |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12–29 | 12–17 | 18–24 | 25–29 | ≥30 | |
|
Male
| |||||
|
Benefit
| |||||
| COVID-19 cases prevented§ |
11,000 |
5,700 |
12,100 |
15,200 |
15,300 |
| Hospitalizations prevented |
560 |
215 |
530 |
936 |
4,598 |
| ICU admissions prevented |
138 |
71 |
127 |
215 |
1,242 |
| Deaths prevented |
6 |
2 |
3 |
13 |
700 |
|
Harms
| |||||
| Myocarditis cases expected¶ |
39–47 |
56–69 |
45–56 |
15–18 |
3–4 |
|
Female
| |||||
|
Benefit
| |||||
| COVID-19 cases prevented§ |
12,500 |
8,500 |
14,300 |
14,700 |
14,900 |
| Hospitalizations prevented |
922 |
183 |
1,127 |
1,459 |
3,484 |
| ICU admissions prevented |
73 |
38 |
93 |
87 |
707 |
| Deaths prevented |
6 |
1 |
13 |
4 |
347 |
|
Harm
| |||||
| Myocarditis cases expected¶ | 4–5 | 8–10 | 4–5 | 2 | 1 |
Abbreviations: ICU = intensive care unit; VAERS = Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System.
* This analysis evaluated direct benefits and harms, per million second doses of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine given in each age group, over 120 days. The numbers of events per million persons aged 12–29 years are the averages of numbers per million persons aged 12–17 years, 18–24 years, and 25–29 years.
† Receipt of 2 doses of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine, compared with no vaccination.
§ Case numbers have been rounded to the nearest hundred.
¶ Ranges calculated as ±10% of crude VAERS reporting rates. Estimates include cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, and myopericarditis.