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. 2021 Jul 26;11:15199. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-94663-x

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Changes in Covid-19 cases per capita relative to changes in the number of tests for countries and states in the USA. Panels show the growth in weekly cases and tests (in logarithms of the per capita rate) for (A) countries and (B) States in the USA that have reported Covid-19 cases. Data compares the week ending April 10th, 2020, with the previous week. (A) β = 0.86; 95% CI 0.57–1.15; p < 0.001; (B) β = 0.17; 95% CI 0.03–0.31; p = 0.02. The Supplementary material shows a higher elasticity for (B) if we restrict logarithmic week-on-week changes of testing rates between − 1 and + 1.5, the range observed in the global sample. In Supplementary Material, Figure S1: β = 0.54, p < 0.0001, 95%CI: 0.36–0.71. Names and abbreviations for countries and US States are included in the Supplementary Material’s Table S5.

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