Table 4.
Scenario analysis: comparison for the current scenario (based on literature data) and for the 2020 scenario (with more stringent sulphur content standards, 0.5% S mass content) between the estimated health outcomes (all-cause mortality, and hospital admissions, with 95% confidence intervals) due to long-term exposure to shipping emissions. Hospital admission data were not available for Athens or Barcelona due to administrative constraints.
| Input data | HIA model output | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| City | PM2.5 reduction* | Endpoint | Outcomes due to shipping/oil source (N)** | Reduction due to 2020 scenario (N)*** | % reduction |
| Nicosia | 0.27 μg/m3 | All-cause mortality | 22–66 | 9.9 (4.9–14.8) | 23% |
| Respiratory hospital admissions | 6.3 | 1.4 | 23% | ||
| Cardiovascular hospital admissions | 20.4 | 4.6 | 23% | ||
| Brindisi | 0.02 μg/m3 | All-cause mortality | 7–22 | 0.1 (< 0.1–0.2) | 1% |
| Respiratory hospital admissions | 9.0 | 0.1 | 1% | ||
| Cardiovascular hospital admissions | 31.3 | 0.3 | 1% | ||
| Genoa | 0.02 μg/m3 | All-cause mortality | 8–25 | 1.3 (0.7–1.9) | 8% |
| Respiratory hospital admissions | 0.4 | < 0.1 | 8% | ||
| Cardiovascular hospital admissions | 4.6 | 0.4 | 8% | ||
| Venice | 0.01 μg/m3 | All-cause mortality | 7–22 | 0.4 (0.2–0.6) | 2% |
| Respiratory hospital admissions | 0.4 | < 0.1 | 3% | ||
| Cardiovascular hospital admissions | 4.2 | 0.4 | 8% | ||
| Msida | 0.23 μg/m3 | All-cause mortality | 0.2–0.7 | 0.1 (< 0.1–0.2) | 26% |
| Respiratory hospital admissions | 1.1 | 0.3 | 29% | ||
| Cardiovascular hospital admissions | 3.0 | 0.9 | 29% | ||
| Melilla | 0.07 μg/m3 | All-cause mortality | 13–37 | 10.7 (5.4–16.0) | 45% |
| Respiratory hospital admissions | 1.0 | 0.4 | 42% | ||
| Cardiovascular hospital admissions | 5.9 | 2.5 | 42% | ||
| Athens | 1.10 μg/m3 | All-cause mortality | 102–302 | 16.2 (8.1–24.3) | 8% |
| Respiratory hospital admissions | N.A. | N.A. | N.A. | ||
| Cardiovascular hospital admissions | N.A. | N.A. | N.A. | ||
| Barcelona | 0.08 μg/m3 | All-cause mortality | 60–177 | 8.3 (4.2–12.5) | 7% |
| Respiratory hospital admissions | N.A. | N.A. | N.A. | ||
| Cardiovascular hospital admissions | N.A. | N.A. | N.A. | ||
From Sofiev et al. (2018).
Outcomes due to shipping/oil (N): number of outcomes attributable to shipping/oil emissions, including the confidence interval (CI), for the current scenario.
Reduction due to 2020 scenario (N): reduction in the number of outcomes (including the confidence interval), for the 2020 scenario.