Table 1.
Clinical input data (base-case analysis)
| Age (years) | Hip fracture (%, non-inst., w/m) [27, 30, 34] | Re-fracture (%, non-inst., w/m) [22, 27, 30, 34] | Re-fracture (%, nursing home, w/m) [22, 30, 34, 35] | Nursing home admission (%, w/m) [21, 30] | Pre-fracture Mortality (%, non-inst., w/m) [28, 30, 31, 33, 36] | Hip-fracture mortality (%, non-inst., w/m) [21, 30, 32] | Mortality (%, nursing home, w/m) [33, 35, 37] | Re-fracture mortality (%, nursing home, w/m) [33, 35, 37] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Months 1–6a (Months 7 + a) | Months 1–6a (Months 7 + a) | Months 1–6a | Months 1–6a (Months 7 + a) | Months 1–6a | ||||
| 75–79 | 0.003/0.002 | 0.018/0.009 | 0.064/0.030 | 0.067/0.066 | 0.009/0.018 | 0.038/0.082 | 0.134/0.224 | 0.252/0.435 |
| (0.004/0.002) | (0.019/0.013) | (0.018/0.032) | ||||||
| 80–84 | 0.006/0.003 | 0.034/0.017 | 0.079/0.043 | 0.117/0.096 | 0.016/0.030 | 0.056/0.109 | 0.134/0.223 | 0.251/0.433 |
| (0.009/0.004) | (0.023/0.018) | (0.023/0.045) | ||||||
| 85–89 | 0.010/0.005 | 0.055/0.027 | 0.084/0.039 | 0.147/0.106 | 0.029/0.047 | 0.073/0.13 | 0.161/0.266 | 0.298/0.501 |
| (0.014/0.007) | (0.027/0.021) | (0.042/0.069) | ||||||
| 90–94 | 0.015/0.009 | 0.075/0.043 | 0.091/0.047 | 0.180/0.117 | 0.063/0.074 | 0.129/0.188 | 0.161/0.265 | 0.297/0.500 |
| (0.020/0.012) | (0.029/0.025) | (0.076/0.101) | ||||||
| 95+ | 0.019/0.012 | 0.094/0.058 | 0.069/0.015 | 0.201/0.186 | 0.063/0.074b | 0.129/0.188b | 0.217/0.332 | 0.389/0.597 |
| (0.025/0.016) | (0.025/0.023) | (0.076/0.101b) |
Confidence intervals (CI) were not reported for all clinical parameters in the literature. Where no 95%-CI was available, we assumed a range of +/− 20%
Abbreviations. w Woman, m Men, not-inst. Non-institutionalized
aPost hip fracture
bThere were only data for 90+ available, so these probabilities are identical with the ones for 90–94